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NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 4–1
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3–2
3 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2–3
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2–3
5 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2–3
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2–3
7 Boston University Boston University Terriers 4–1
8 Brown University Brown University Bears 3–2
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3–2
10 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2–3
11 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2–3
12 Boston College Boston College Eagles 1–4

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,956 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 21 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.667 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.55 ± 0.45: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 9% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Yale University
Bulldogs		211.31
school +0.27		Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 3.92
Stephan Baker / Meredith Ryan 3.46
Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.65		70%4–1 (80%)+0.5
2Roger Williams University
Hawks		410.83
school +0.28		Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.52
Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 3.55
Cameron Wood / Michaela Odonnell 3.48		58%3–2 (60%)+0.1
3Harvard University
Crimson		111.29
school +0.26		Justin Callahan / Marbella Marlo 3.91
Lachlain Mcgranahan / Christopher Wang 3.86
Mitchell Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 3.25		73%5–3 (62%)−0.8
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy
Bears		59.72Daniel Unangst / Jack Farrell 3.30
Colman Schofield / Lauren O'Neill 3.41
Matthew Kickhafer / Charles Pohl 3.02		32%4–4 (50%)+1.5
5Dartmouth College
Big Green		310.83
school +0.36		Robert Bragg / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.59
Maddie Hawkins / Aisling Sullivan 3.57
William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.30		62%3–5 (38%)−1.9
6Tufts University
Jumbos		68.92
school +0.12		Patrick Mulcahy / Caroline Kelly 2.62 1–5
Trevor Davis / Celia Byrne 3.04 1–5
Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 3.08 1–4
John Eastman / Amelia Carlson 2.94 1–2
Trevor Davis / Henry Tindall 3.01 1–1
Ben Mueller / William Eykyn 3.08 1–1		17%2–6 (25%)+0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy9.7210.644–42.5+0.921.020%
1Yale University11.3111.914–13.5+0.600.252%
6Tufts University8.929.502–61.3+0.580.340%
2Roger Williams University10.8310.913–22.9+0.090.066%
3Harvard University11.2910.745–35.8−0.540.387%
5Dartmouth College10.839.613–54.9−1.221.798%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Ben MuellerTufts University3.083.812–51.2+0.730.435%
Patrick MulcahyTufts University2.623.221–50.6+0.600.247%
Aidan HooglandRoger Williams University3.523.603–22.9+0.090.066%
Carlos De CastroRoger Williams University3.553.643–22.9+0.090.066%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
331Harvard UniversityTufts University92%
332U. S. Coast Guard AcademyDartmouth College25%upset
333Harvard UniversityDartmouth College61%
334U. S. Coast Guard AcademyTufts University63%
335Dartmouth CollegeTufts University88%
336Harvard UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy83%
61Harvard UniversityRoger Williams University61%
62Yale UniversityDartmouth College62%
63Tufts UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy37%upset
67Harvard UniversityTufts University92%
68Yale UniversityRoger Williams University62%
69Dartmouth CollegeU. S. Coast Guard Academy75%
613Dartmouth CollegeHarvard University39%upset
614U. S. Coast Guard AcademyYale University17%upset
615Roger Williams UniversityTufts University89%
619U. S. Coast Guard AcademyHarvard University17%upset
620Roger Williams UniversityDartmouth College50%upset
621Yale UniversityHarvard University51%
625Tufts UniversityDartmouth College12%upset
626Roger Williams UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy75%
627Yale UniversityTufts University92%

Round 3

TeamRec.CrimsonBearsGreenJumbos
Harvard University Crimson3–0✕WWW
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears2–1L✕WW
Dartmouth College Big Green1–2LL✕W
Tufts University Jumbos0–3LLL✕

Round 6

TeamRec.BulldogsHawksCrimsonBearsGreenJumbosTerriersBearsEngineersCamelsBearsEagles
Yale University Bulldogs4–1✕WWLWW––––––
Roger Williams University Hawks3–2L✕LWWW––––––
Harvard University Crimson2–3LW✕LLW––––––
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears2–3WLW✕LL––––––
Dartmouth College Big Green2–3LLWW✕L––––––
Tufts University Jumbos2–3LLLWW✕––––––
Boston University Terriers4–1––––––✕WLWWW
Brown University Bears4–2––––––L✕WLWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–3––––––WL✕LWW
Connecticut College Camels3–3––––––LWW✕WL
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–4––––––LLLL✕W
Boston College Eagles1–4––––––LLLWL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
31 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
32 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-4-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-3-6 DSQ
33 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
34 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
35 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
36 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
1 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
2 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
4 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
6 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
7 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
8 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
9 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-3-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-4-6
10 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 1-5-6
11 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
12 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
13 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
14 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-5
15 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
16 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-5-6
17 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
18 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
19 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
20 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-5-6
21 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
22 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-5-6
23 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Boston College Eagles 3-5-6
24 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
25 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-6
26 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-5-6
27 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
28 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
29 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
30 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
37 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-4-6
38 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6

Conditions — 04/08/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 33%  ·  Pressure 1031.2 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From NW (323°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity33% Pressure1031.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →