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Norman Reid Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12–3
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 11–4
3 Boston College Boston College Eagles 11–4
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 7–8
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 4–11
6 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,842 team race matches sailed before 2022-10-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 45 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.569 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.16 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 27% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tufts University
Jumbos		47.41
school +0.12		Patrick Mulcahy / Cecilia Adams 2.46
Connor Rosow / Magdelaina Putnam 2.19
Chloe Holder / Nicolas Echarte 2.55		45%12–3 (80%)+5.3
2Brown University
Bears		38.16
school +0.25		Hunter Zonnenberg / Hannah Sellers 2.82
Thomas Styron / Emily Rosenthal 2.63
Connor Macken / Talia Levine 2.34		63%11–4 (73%)+1.5
3Boston College
Eagles		18.70
school +0.30, home +0.37		Graham Ness / Matt Budington 2.70
Libby Redmond / Lourdes Gallo 2.59
Caroline Sibilly / Elliot Dyroff		76%11–4 (73%)−0.4
4Roger Williams University
Hawks 1		28.41
school +0.35		George Higham / Grace Woodcock 2.61
Oliver Stokke / Claire Buckley
Jack Roman / Dominique Spinola		69%7–8 (47%)−3.4
5Boston University
Terriers		66.04Elliott Mendenhall / Carolyn Kravets 2.22
Porter Bell / Jack Culton
Nathan Selian / Lachlan Hooper 2.21		16%4–11 (27%)+1.7
6Roger Williams University
Hawks 2		56.81
school +0.35		Chase Reynolds / Benjamin Lindo 2.29
Luke Hosek / Ethan Snyder 2.08
Emmett Nevel / Katharine Benagh 2.02		31%0–15 (0%)−4.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Tufts University Jumbos7.419.3012–36.7+1.906.9<1%
5Boston University Terriers6.046.784–112.3+0.740.919%
2Brown University Bears8.168.7111–49.5+0.550.628%
3Boston College Eagles8.708.5511–411.4−0.150.072%
4Roger Williams University Hawks 18.417.277–810.4−1.142.999%
6Roger Williams University Hawks 26.813.810–154.6≤−3.008.6>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Patrick MulcahyTufts University2.464.3612–36.7+1.906.9<1%
Connor RosowTufts University2.194.0912–36.7+1.906.9<1%
Elliott MendenhallBoston University2.222.964–112.3+0.740.919%
Thomas StyronBrown University2.633.1811–49.5+0.550.628%
George HighamRoger Williams University2.611.477–810.4−1.142.999%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Boston College EaglesBoston University Terriers93%
12Brown University BearsRoger Williams University Hawks 143%upset
13Tufts University JumbosRoger Williams University Hawks 264%
14Brown University BearsBoston University Terriers89%
15Boston College EaglesTufts University Jumbos78%
16Roger Williams University Hawks 1Roger Williams University Hawks 283%
17Tufts University JumbosBoston University Terriers80%
18Brown University BearsRoger Williams University Hawks 279%
19Boston College EaglesRoger Williams University Hawks 157%
110Tufts University JumbosBrown University Bears32%upset
111Boston College EaglesRoger Williams University Hawks 287%
112Boston University TerriersRoger Williams University Hawks 18%upset
113Brown University BearsBoston College Eagles37%upset
114Tufts University JumbosRoger Williams University Hawks 127%upset
115Boston University TerriersRoger Williams University Hawks 231%upset
216Boston College EaglesBoston University Terriers94%
217Roger Williams University Hawks 1Brown University Bears56%
218Tufts University JumbosRoger Williams University Hawks 264%
219Brown University BearsBoston University Terriers89%
220Tufts University JumbosBoston College Eagles21%upset
221Roger Williams University Hawks 1Roger Williams University Hawks 283%
222Tufts University JumbosBoston University Terriers80%
223Brown University BearsRoger Williams University Hawks 280%
224Roger Williams University Hawks 1Boston College Eagles43%upset
225Brown University BearsTufts University Jumbos68%
226Boston College EaglesRoger Williams University Hawks 287%
227Roger Williams University Hawks 1Boston University Terriers91%
228Brown University BearsBoston College Eagles37%upset
229Tufts University JumbosRoger Williams University Hawks 127%upset
230Boston University TerriersRoger Williams University Hawks 232%upset
331Boston College EaglesBoston University Terriers93%
332Brown University BearsRoger Williams University Hawks 144%upset
333Tufts University JumbosRoger Williams University Hawks 265%
334Brown University BearsBoston University Terriers89%
335Boston College EaglesTufts University Jumbos79%
336Roger Williams University Hawks 1Roger Williams University Hawks 283%
337Tufts University JumbosBoston University Terriers79%
338Brown University BearsRoger Williams University Hawks 280%
339Boston College EaglesRoger Williams University Hawks 157%
340Tufts University JumbosBrown University Bears32%upset
341Boston College EaglesRoger Williams University Hawks 287%
342Roger Williams University Hawks 1Boston University Terriers91%
343Boston College EaglesBrown University Bears63%
344Tufts University JumbosRoger Williams University Hawks 127%upset
345Boston University TerriersRoger Williams University Hawks 232%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.JumbosBearsEagles1Terriers2
Tufts University Jumbos4–1✕WLWWW
Brown University Bears4–1L✕WWWW
Boston College Eagles4–1WL✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks 11–9LLL✕L✕
Boston University Terriers2–3LLLW✕W
Roger Williams University Hawks 21–9LLL✕L✕

Round 2

TeamRec.JumbosBearsEagles1Terriers2
Tufts University Jumbos4–1✕LWWWW
Brown University Bears4–1W✕WWWW
Boston College Eagles2–3LL✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks 14–6LLL✕L✕
Boston University Terriers1–4LLLW✕W
Roger Williams University Hawks 24–6LLL✕L✕

Round 3

TeamRec.JumbosBearsEagles1Terriers2
Tufts University Jumbos4–1✕WLWWW
Brown University Bears3–2L✕LWWW
Boston College Eagles5–0WW✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks 12–8LLL✕L✕
Boston University Terriers1–4LLLW✕W
Roger Williams University Hawks 22–8LLL✕L✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
2 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1 2-5-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3-4-6
4 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
5 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
6 Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3-4-6
7 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-3-6
8 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3-5-6
9 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1 3-4-6
10 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
11 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3-5-6
12 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1 3-4-5
13 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1 3-4-5
15 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3-4-5
16 Boston College Eagles 1-4-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-3-6
17 Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
18 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 4-5-6
19 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
20 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
21 Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3-4-6
22 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-6
23 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3-4-5
24 Roger Williams University Hawks 1 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
25 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-6
26 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3-5-6
27 Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
28 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
29 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1 3-4-5
30 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 2-4-6
31 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
32 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1 3-4-6
33 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 4-5-6
34 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
35 Boston College Eagles 2-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-6
36 Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 4-5-6
37 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
38 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 4-5-6
39 Boston College Eagles 1-3-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1 2-4-6
40 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
41 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 4-5-6
42 Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
43 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
44 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1-5-6
45 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3-4-5

Conditions — 10/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1024.9 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From SSW (207°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1024.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Boston College — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Boston College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled fleet-race days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →