Brown University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.24 (fleet 3.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.05 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 125–45 (74%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 6 | 60–17 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 17–12 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 22–6 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 14 graded regattas (168 matches) the record is 124–44 against 118.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.7). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.62 | 3.41 | 18–3 | 15.7 | +0.79 | 1.2 | 16% |
| 2024-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.48 | 3.17 | 16–6 | 13.1 | +0.69 | 1.4 | 13% |
| 2024-03-23 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 5.52 | 4–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 27% |
| 2024-03-16 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 1.94 | 9–8 | 10.8 | −0.57 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2024-03-03 | McMerrick Cup SUNDAY | skipper | 2.38 | 5.38 | 5–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 64% |
| 2024-03-02 | McMerrick Cup SATURDAY | skipper | 2.35 | 5.35 | 8–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 66% |
| 2023-10-28 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 3.28 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +0.76 | 0.4 | 44% |
| 2023-04-08 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.25 | 1.04 | 4–4 | 5.8 | −1.21 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.25 | 1.76 | 10–4 | 10.9 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2023-03-04 | McMerrick Cup | skipper | 2.40 | 0.50 | 3–4 | 5.4 | −1.90 | 3.5 | >99% |
| 2022-10-22 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.34 | 2.89 | 11–4 | 9.5 | +0.55 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 2022-03-26 | Boston University Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 3.29 | 18–2 | 16.0 | +0.84 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.38 | 2.62 | 3–3 | 2.7 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2021-10-23 | Norman G. Reid Team Race | skipper | 1.99 | 2.34 | 10–5 | 9.0 | +0.35 | 0.3 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 7.6 | 2.65 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| McMerrick Cup SUNDAY | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| McMerrick Cup SATURDAY | Skipper | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| George E. Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.5 | 3.00 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.7 | 2.31 |
| Yale Fall Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.5 | 3.10 |
| Sister Esther Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.6 | 3.43 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.0 | 2.75 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.2 | 2.63 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 3.16 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | 2.74 |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| McMerrick Cup | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.0 | 1.80 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.8 | 2.73 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 2.85 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 11.0 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 4.2 | 3.13 |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.5 | 2.74 |
| Boston University Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 90% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.0 | 2.95 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.3 | 3.68 |
| Norman G. Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.6 | 2.99 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.0 | 2.27 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.3 | 3.09 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| CGA Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.7 | 4.32 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Connor Macken |  Tabor Academy |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
