Lark Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 16 21 37
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 24 16 40
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 30 12 42
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 26 26 52
5 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 34 21 55
6 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 26 47 73
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 33 42 75
8 Williams College Williams College Ephs 34 68 102
9 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 60 48 108
10 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 58 62 120
11 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 71 51 122
12 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 68 55 123
13 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 66 77 143
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 1 1 3 1 7 3 16 Emily Mueller '25
Talia Levine '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 5 4 1 8 4 2 24 Haley Andreasen '25
Nicolas Echarte '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 7 9 3 3 1 26 Luke Hosek '24
Ethan Snyder '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 6 3 4 4 5 4 26 Katherine Mcnamara '26
Brianna Ross '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 2 8 6 6 1 7 30 Adam Larzelere '25
Harrison Vose '26
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 7 6 7 2 6 5 33 Liam Lawless '25
Mridhula Subramanian '25
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 2 5 7 8 8 34 Iain Jaeger '23
Brigette Alves '25
Williams College Williams College Ephs 10 9 2 5 2 6 34 Felix Nusbaum '25
Varya Kluev '25
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 8 5 10 11 11 13 58 Norman Walker '24
Logan O’Rourke '24
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 9 10 11 12 9 9 60 Alexander Lee '23
Cindy Tian '23
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 12 11 8 13 12 10 66 Jake Lacoche '26
Vincent (Vinny) Pallotto '23
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 13 12 12 9 10 12 68 Andrew White '25
Tim Lyons '26
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 11 13 13 10 13 11 71 Anna Ladue '26
Fox Fernald '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 3 1 4 2 1 1 12 Marina Garrido '25
Matthew Caplan '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 3 1 4 3 3 16 Meredith Broadus '25
Lilly Ladd '26
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 2 2 5 6 5 21 Sam Ingalls '24
Jane Lally '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 4 5 3 3 4 2 21 Connor Macken '24
Janelle Li '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 5 6 8 1 2 4 26 Drew Mastovsky '26
Katharine Benagh '24
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 8 7 6 6 7 8 42 Sylvia Burns '26
Andrew Wagner '26
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 10 4 10 9 8 6 47 Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26
Sierra Bornheim '24
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 7 9 5 8 10 9 48 Olivia Hogan-Lopez '26
Isabel Eddy '24
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 9 10 7 7 11 7 51 Griffin Stolp '27
Juliana Demarco '26
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 6 8 12 12 5 12 55 Michael Cunniff '26
Samantha Gulachenski '25
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 11 12 9 11 9 10 62 Caleb Burt '25
Hannah Hicks '25
Williams College Williams College Ephs 13 11 11 10 12 11 68 Rem Johannknecht '26
Annika Brockman '24
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 12 13 13 13 13 13 77 Kathleen Hanson '25
Maya Veldman-Wilson '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1113355
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2224466
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags335588
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson446699
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners55881010
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers66991111
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1212151522
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies8810101212
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams13131133
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks9911111313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1101012121515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21111131311
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs15152244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1224466
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2335588
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags446699
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson55881010
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners66991111
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers8810101212
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats13131133
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies9911111313
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams15152244
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks101012121515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11111131311
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21212151522
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs113355

Conditions — 10/01/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From NE (34°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.4 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1020.0 hPa Rain0.10 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →