Roger Williams University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.97 (fleet 2.89) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.12 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 82–125 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 18–15 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 5 | 26–28 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 2–25 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 6 | 34–45 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 2–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 18 graded regattas (206 matches) the record is 81–125 against 96.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−15.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 9 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 26 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-23 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.24 | 1.26 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −0.98 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 2024-03-16 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | skipper | 2.15 | 2.14 | 11–6 | 11.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2024-03-10 | Salve Regina Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.19 | 1.88 | 5–5 | 5.5 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2023-04-08 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.04 | 2.79 | 5–3 | 3.8 | +0.75 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 2023-03-25 | Team Racing Invite | skipper | 1.93 | 2.22 | 12–8 | 10.8 | +0.29 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.01 | 2.11 | 3–7 | 2.8 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2023-03-11 | Salve Regina Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.93 | 1.50 | 4–8 | 5.1 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2023-03-04 | McMerrick Cup | skipper | 1.91 | 2.31 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 69% |
| 2022-10-29 | Dave Perry Trophy | skipper | 1.98 | 0.42 | 2–10 | 4.1 | −1.56 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2022-10-22 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | -0.92 | 0–15 | 4.6 | ≤−3.00 | 8.6 | >99% |
| 2022-04-03 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 2.03 | 5.03 | 9–0 | 8.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 42% |
| 2022-04-02 | Yale TR @ Connecticut College | skipper | 1.96 | 3.50 | 5–2 | 2.7 | +1.54 | 2.5 | 7% |
| 2022-03-26 | Boston University Team Race | skipper | 2.05 | 1.18 | 8–12 | 11.6 | −0.87 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 2022-03-19 | The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.12 | 1.59 | 7–14 | 9.2 | −0.53 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2022-03-12 | MIT Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.14 | 0.84 | 2–5 | 3.3 | −1.30 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.16 | 0.97 | 3–12 | 6.2 | −1.18 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2021-03-27 | Robin Wallace Team Race | skipper | 2.07 | 1.83 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2021-03-20 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.06 | -0.45 | 1–8 | 3.0 | −2.51 | 3.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.1 | 2.72 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| Salve Regina Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| George E. Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.0 | 2.76 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 3.31 |
| Sister Esther Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.4 | 2.74 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.9 | 2.06 |
| Eagle Invite | Skipper | C | 10 | 7.0 | 0.82 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.2 | 4.27 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 60% | — |
| Salve Regina Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| McMerrick Cup | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | 1.88 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | 2.42 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 2.67 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale TR @ Connecticut College | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Spring Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 5.5 | 2.43 |
| Southern 5 Fleet Race/Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.2 | 1.61 |
| Southern 7 Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.9 | 1.13 |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 33% | — |
| The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 33% | — |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| Boston University Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.5 | 2.06 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.6 | 3.11 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.5 | 2.48 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.0 | 2.94 |
| Boston University Invite | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.7 | 2.03 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Salve Regina Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.1 | -0.34 |
| Robin Wallace Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Robin Wallace Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 2.56 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Luke Hosek |  Lane Tech College Prep |
'20 |
| ISSA | Luke Hosek |  University of Chicago Laboratory Schools |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
