| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Brown University | Bears 2 | 8–2 |
| 3 | |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | 5–5 |
| 4 | |
Brown University | Bears 1 | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,737 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 30 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.643 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.85 ± 0.33: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 5% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 7.26 | 8.93 | 8–2 | 5.5 | +1.67 | 2.9 | 5% |
| 6 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 3.66 | 5.07 | 1–9 | 0.3 | +1.40 | 0.9 | 24% |
| 2 | Brown University Bears 2 | 8.22 | 8.63 | 8–2 | 7.4 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 50% |
| 5 | Salve Regina University Seahawks | 5.76 | 5.90 | 3–7 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 3 | Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 7.21 | 6.90 | 5–5 | 5.5 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 4 | Brown University Bears 1 | 8.81 | 6.64 | 5–5 | 8.5 | −2.17 | 5.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Browne | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 0.21 | 2.49 | 1–3 | 0.1 | +2.27 | 1.8 | 14% |
| Drew Mastovsky | Roger Williams University | 2.87 | 4.54 | 8–2 | 5.5 | +1.67 | 2.9 | 5% |
| Yasar Akin | Roger Williams University | 1.37 | 3.04 | 8–2 | 5.5 | +1.67 | 2.9 | 5% |
| Zach Earnshaw | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 1.10 | 2.50 | 1–9 | 0.3 | +1.40 | 0.9 | 24% |
| Emil Tullberg | Salve Regina University | 2.67 | 2.81 | 3–7 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Olivia Lowthian | Salve Regina University | 2.02 | 2.16 | 3–7 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Martins Atilla | Brown University | 2.82 | 0.65 | 5–5 | 8.5 | −2.17 | 5.8 | >99% |
| Andy Leshaw | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 1.45 | -1.55 | 0–6 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Seahawks | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 7–3 | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Brown University Bears 2 | 5–5 | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 7–3 | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Brown University Bears 1 | 5–5 | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 2–3 | L | W | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Seahawks | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 6–4 | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Brown University Bears 2 | 8–2 | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 6–4 | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Brown University Bears 1 | 8–2 | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-5 DSQ |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hawks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 DSQ | def. | |
Hawks 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Bears 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bears 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | Drew Mastovsky '26 Jack Roman '26 Yasar Akin '27 |
Maren Matthews '26 Carter Sheehan '27 Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino '27 |
|
Brown University | Bears 2 | Blake Behrens '27 Ethan Simpson '27 Sidney Moyer '27 |
Catherine Morrissette '24 Janelle Li '25 Talia Levine '26 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | Luke Hosek '24 Tavia Smith '27 William Bailey '24 |
Ethan Snyder '25 Katharine Benagh '24 Ruby Hope '25 |
|
Brown University | Bears 1 | Laura Hamilton '27 Martins Atilla '27 Mason Stang '25 |
Katherine Majette '27 Sierra Bornheim '24 Olivia Miller '25 |
|
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | Emil Tullberg '25 Olivia Lowthian '25 Sean Morrison '27 |
Shannon Gondoly '25 Caelan Haddock '25 Charlotte Martinez '23 |
|
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | Andy Leshaw '25 Luke Kenahan '27 Oliver Browne '27 Zach Earnshaw '27 |
Mallory Dietsch '27 Oliver Browne '27 Andrew Dyment '26 Luke Dubois '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
