Roger Williams University '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.65 (fleet 2.24) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–2 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 8–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 8–2 against 5.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-10 | Salve Regina Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.37 | 3.04 | 8–2 | 5.5 | +1.67 | 2.9 | 5% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Salve Regina Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 8.6 | 2.40 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.7 | 2.04 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.5 | 0.77 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.9 | 2.27 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.4 | 1.97 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
