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Mt. Hope Bay Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 41 41
2 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 46 46
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 59 59
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 60 60
5 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 84 84
6 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 88 88
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 96 96
8 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 97 97
9 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 107 107
10 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 139 MRP 139 MRP
11 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 148 MRP 148 MRP
12 Pioneers 1 Pioneers 1 Pioneers 1 178 178
13 Pioneers 2 Pioneers 2 Pioneers 2 183 183
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 3 2 3 3 3 1 8 6 4 1 3 2 1 1 41 Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez '26
Jack Taylor '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 1 5 2 4 5 2 2 2 1 3 11 1 4 3 46 Luke Zylinski '26 [1-10]
Bradley Whiteway '26 [11-14]
Aiana Cayao '26 [1-10]
Grace Austin '27 [11-14]
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 4 1 5 2 2 4 3 8 5 9 1 6 3 6 59 Grant Adam '23
Spencer Dellenbaugh '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 5 4 4 1 1 7 1 3 3 5 4 11 6 5 60 Dominik Spinelli '27 [1-10]
Julian Henderson '27 [11-13]
Gavin Vanmanen '27 [14]
Austin White '27 [1-10]
Gavin Vanmanen '27 [11-13]
Julian Henderson '27 [14]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 2 7 1 7 6 6 4 10 7 6 7 3 10 8 84 Kevin Gosselin '27 [1-10]
Allison Nystrom '26 [11-14]
Jin Johnson '24 [1-10]
Sarah Krajewski '26 [11-14]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 8 6 6 8 8 11 9 1 8 2 2 10 7 2 88 Jakub Fuja '27
Frankie Sparrow '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 7 8 11 10 10 5 7 5 2 7 6 9 2 7 96 Daniel Van Heeckeren '26 [1-14]
Anna Steffen '25 [1-10]
Ali Mcintyre '27 [11-14]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 10 9 9 11 4 3 6 9 6 8 5 8 5 4 97 Charles Morris '25
Tyler Davis '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 6 3 7 5 9 8 11 7 10 10 8 4 9 10 107 Keller Morrison '25 [1-14]
Lucian Sharpe '24 [1-10]
William Salerno '25 [11-14]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 11 11 8 6 7 9 5 4 12 11 9 7 8 11 139 MRP Yasar Akin '27
Dominique Spinola '26
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 9 10 10 9 11 10 10 11 9 4 10 5 11 9 148 MRP Zachary Amelotte '27
Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino '27
Pioneers 1 Pioneers 1 Pioneers 1 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS 178
Pioneers 2 Pioneers 2 Pioneers 2 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS 183
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 111111111111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 222222222222222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 333333333333333
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 199999999999999
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 21010101010101010101010101010
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 31111111111111111111111111111
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 144444444444444
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 255555555555555
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 366666666666666
Pioneers 1Pioneers 1 Pioneers 177777777777777
Pioneers 2Pioneers 2 Pioneers 288888888888888
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 11212121212121212121212121212
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 21313131313131313131313131313

Conditions — 09/09/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From SSW (198°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1019.6 hPa Rain0.22 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn* · SE 6 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →