Nickerson Trophy

HostTufts
Date10/28/2023
TypeRegional
BoatLark
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	30	41	71
2	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	44	48	92
3	Brown University	Bears	66	42	108
4	Boston College	Eagles	60	56	116
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	51	72	123
6	Jacksonville University	Fins	78	62	140
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	57	87	144
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	79	65	144
9	Connecticut College	Camels	96	71	167
10	University of Michigan	Wolverines	73	131	204
11	University of Rhode Island	Rams	110	98	208
12	University of Vermont	Catamounts	119	95	214
13	University of South Florida	Bulls	103	115	218
14	University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	141	118	259
15	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	125	135	260
16	Northeastern University	Huskies	131	134	265
17	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	161	162	323

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	10	1	1	3	1	1	3	6	3	1	30	Kurt Stuebe '27 Cody Lamoreux '27
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	1	5	5	2	2	3	1	3	4	DSQ	44	Wyatt Bischoff '27 Sean Beaver '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	2	6	4	5	4	2	7	1	2	DSQ	51	Robert Ulmer '27 Ellie Pinto '27
Roger Williams University	Hawks	3	3	11	7	14	6	2	2	5	4	57	Tavia Smith '27 Carter Sheehan '27
Boston College	Eagles	8	2	10	1	7	11	4	7	7	3	60	Ryan Mcgauley '27 Damien Bocan '27
Brown University	Bears	RDG	4	9	9	9	8	9	4	1	6	66	Blake Behrens '27 [1-10] Corinne Harrison '27 [1-4, 7-10] Sidney Moyer '27 [5-6]
University of Michigan	Wolverines	13	8	2	12	6	10	6	8	6	2	73	Braden Vogel '27 Hannah Cronin '27
Jacksonville University	Fins	7	13	14	6	5	4	10	5	9	5	78	Cole Schweda '27 Jesse Anderson '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	4	10	3	8	3	5	15	11	11	9	79	Dominik Spinelli '27 [1-10] Austin White '27 [1-8] Caroline Odell '27 [9-10]
Connecticut College	Camels	5	14	12	14	12	7	5	10	10	7	96	Matias Martin '27 Tatem Gee '27
University of South Florida	Bulls	6	7	7	13	8	14	12	12	12	12	103	Kailey Warrior '27 Zach O'Connor '27
University of Rhode Island	Rams	11	12	15	16	11	9	11	9	8	8	110	Cameron Silvers '27 [1-10] Ella Gibson '27 [1-2, 7-8] Emma Schnippering '27 [3-6, 9-10]
University of Vermont	Catamounts	9	9	DSQ	4	10	15	13	14	14	13	119	Cooper Smith '27 Jack Taylor '27
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	14	11	8	10	15	13	16	15	13	10	125	Kevin Brooksbank '27 [1-4, 9-10] Oliver Browne '27 [5-8] Mallory Dietsch '27 [1-4, 9-10]
Northeastern University	Huskies	12	15	13	15	13	16	8	13	15	11	131	Isabella Cho '27 Lorelei Duarte '28
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	15	16	6	11	16	17	14	16	16	14	141	Ted Richardsson '27 Brendan Obrien '27
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	16	17	16	17	17	12	17	17	17	15	161	Tyler Winowiecki '27 Julia Overmyer '27

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	4	4	5	2	8	4	1	3	6	4	41	Gus Macaulay '27 Eloise Goedkoop '27
Brown University	Bears	DSQ	3	4	8	1	1	4	1	1	1	42	Cam Spriggs '27 Katherine Majette '27
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	1	12	6	3	2	5	9	6	2	2	48	Devon Owen '27 Reddin Kehrli '27
Boston College	Eagles	5	5	1	11	10	2	6	4	3	9	56	James O’Gwen '27 Gabrielle Trinter '27
Jacksonville University	Fins	9	6	11	7	3	6	3	2	10	5	62	Hank Seum '27 Will Platten '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	2	10	7	1	7	9	2	13	8	6	65	Kevin Gosselin '27 [1-7] Gavin Vanmanen '27 [8-10] Grace Austin '27 [1-7] Julian Henderson '27 [8-10]
Connecticut College	Camels	8	2	9	5	5	3	7	14	7	11	71	William Hurd '27 Andrew Selian '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	6	7	8	12	4	8	8	5	4	10	72	Emma Wang '27 [1-7] Andy Yu '27 [8-10] Elliott Chalcraft '27 [1-7]
Roger Williams University	Hawks	10	11	2	DSQ	14	7	5	12	5	3	87	Yasar Akin '27 Addyson Fisher '27
University of Vermont	Catamounts	3	9	13	4	13	10	15	10	11	7	95	Greer Page '27 [1-6, 9-10] Jordynn Johnson '27 [7-8] Jackson Hurd-Messom '27 [1-6, 9-10]
University of Rhode Island	Rams	11	8	3	10	6	11	13	8	14	14	98	Emaline Ouellette '28 [1-2, 5-8] Nolan Wiggins '27 [3-4, 9-10] Emma Hershey '27 [1-2, 5-8]
University of South Florida	Bulls	16	15	12	6	9	14	10	9	9	15	115	Marina Dreyfuss '27 Aicha Smati '27
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	7	13	15	13	12	15	11	7	13	12	118	Lucas Wiatrowski '27 Autumn Horsey '27
University of Michigan	Wolverines	12	1	10	14	17	17	14	15	15	16	131	Jack Homa '27 [1-2, 9-10] Ted Sherman '27 [3-4, 7-8] Wake Zani '27 [5-6] Sabrina Maas '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Sofia David '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Northeastern University	Huskies	15	14	16	15	15	12	12	11	16	8	134	Adrien Blanc '27 Hala Gilbert '26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	13	16	14	9	11	13	17	17	12	13	135	Zach Earnshaw '27 Murphy Olson '27
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	14	17	17	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	162	Victoria Sikorjak '27 Nat Altuzar '27

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Boston College Eagles	21	21	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Brown University Bears	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	12	12	24	24	16	16	21	21	3	3
Connecticut College Camels	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Jacksonville University Fins	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	24	24
University of Michigan Wolverines	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	24	24	16	16	21	21	3	3	5	5
Northeastern University Huskies	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
University of Rhode Island Rams	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6
Roger Williams University Hawks	8	8	10	10	12	12	24	24	16	16
Salve Regina University Seahawks	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
University of South Florida Bulls	16	16	21	21	3	3	5	5	7	7
Tufts University Jumbos 1	10	10	12	12	24	24	16	16	21	21
Tufts University Jumbos 2	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2
University of Vermont Catamounts	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Boston College Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Brown University Bears	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	19	19
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4
Connecticut College Camels	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Jacksonville University Fins	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
University of Michigan Wolverines	24	24	16	16	21	21	3	3	5	5
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	24	24
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6
Northeastern University Huskies	8	8	10	10	12	12	24	24	16	16
University of Rhode Island Rams	16	16	21	21	3	3	5	5	7	7
Roger Williams University Hawks	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Salve Regina University Seahawks	10	10	12	12	24	24	16	16	21	21
University of South Florida Bulls	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Tufts University Jumbos 1	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos 2	12	12	24	24	16	16	21	21	3	3
University of Vermont Catamounts	21	21	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Ryan Mcgauley '27	Damien Bocan '27
Eagles	James O’Gwen '27	Gabrielle Trinter '27
Brown University	Blake Behrens '27 [1-10]	Corinne Harrison '27 [1-4, 7-10] Sidney Moyer '27 [5-6]
Bears	Cam Spriggs '27	Katherine Majette '27
Connecticut College	Matias Martin '27	Tatem Gee '27
Camels	William Hurd '27	Andrew Selian '27
Jacksonville University	Cole Schweda '27	Jesse Anderson '27
Fins	Hank Seum '27	Will Platten '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Robert Ulmer '27	Ellie Pinto '27
Engineers	Emma Wang '27 [1-7] Andy Yu '27 [8-10]	Elliott Chalcraft '27 [1-7]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Kevin Brooksbank '27 [1-4, 9-10] Oliver Browne '27 [5-8]	Mallory Dietsch '27 [1-4, 9-10]
Buccaneers	Zach Earnshaw '27	Murphy Olson '27
Northeastern University	Isabella Cho '27	Lorelei Duarte '28
Huskies	Adrien Blanc '27	Hala Gilbert '26
Roger Williams University	Tavia Smith '27	Carter Sheehan '27
Hawks	Yasar Akin '27	Addyson Fisher '27
Salve Regina University	Tyler Winowiecki '27	Julia Overmyer '27
Seahawks	Victoria Sikorjak '27	Nat Altuzar '27
Tufts University	Wyatt Bischoff '27	Sean Beaver '27
Jumbos 1	Devon Owen '27	Reddin Kehrli '27
Tufts University	Kurt Stuebe '27	Cody Lamoreux '27
Jumbos 2	Gus Macaulay '27	Eloise Goedkoop '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dominik Spinelli '27 [1-10]	Austin White '27 [1-8] Caroline Odell '27 [9-10]
Bears	Kevin Gosselin '27 [1-7] Gavin Vanmanen '27 [8-10]	Grace Austin '27 [1-7] Julian Henderson '27 [8-10]
University of Michigan	Braden Vogel '27	Hannah Cronin '27
Wolverines	Jack Homa '27 [1-2, 9-10] Ted Sherman '27 [3-4, 7-8] Wake Zani '27 [5-6]	Sabrina Maas '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Sofia David '27 [3-4, 7-8]
University of New Hampshire	Ted Richardsson '27	Brendan Obrien '27
Wildcats	Lucas Wiatrowski '27	Autumn Horsey '27
University of Rhode Island	Cameron Silvers '27 [1-10]	Ella Gibson '27 [1-2, 7-8] Emma Schnippering '27 [3-6, 9-10]
Rams	Emaline Ouellette '28 [1-2, 5-8] Nolan Wiggins '27 [3-4, 9-10]	Emma Hershey '27 [1-2, 5-8]
University of South Florida	Kailey Warrior '27	Zach O'Connor '27
Bulls	Marina Dreyfuss '27	Aicha Smati '27
University of Vermont	Cooper Smith '27	Jack Taylor '27
Catamounts	Greer Page '27 [1-6, 9-10] Jordynn Johnson '27 [7-8]	Jackson Hurd-Messom '27 [1-6, 9-10]

Conditions — 10/28/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

72°F

↑ 77°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.1 kn

avg · max 10.8 kn

Gusts to 19.8 kn

From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1012.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · NE 8 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.12

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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