Zach Earnshaw

Rating History

Singlehanded & Keelboat Ratings

DisciplineRating Rank RacesLast raced
Keelboat0.7840 of 9864Fall 2026

Team Race Rating

Rating Rank vs fleet rating Record
1.45 (fleet 1.90) 285 of 328 +0.08 ± 0.16
about what the fleet rating predicts
as skipper 28–50 (36%)
SeasonRegattas Skipper W–LCrew W–L
Spring 2026217–10—
Spring 202521–22—
Spring 2024410–18—
0.7511.251.5Spring 2024Spring 2025Spring 2026McMerrick Cup SUNDAY (2024-03-03): rating 0.80, fleet rating alone 0.77, offset +0.03; record 2-3 in this boatSalve Regina Team Race Invite (2024-03-10): rating 0.84, fleet rating alone 0.77, offset +0.06; record 1-9 in this boatAlymers Team Race Invite (2024-04-06): rating 0.88, fleet rating alone 0.80, offset +0.08; record 5-4 in this boatMass Maritime Team Race Invite (2025-03-15): rating 0.81, fleet rating alone 0.74, offset +0.07; record 1-7 in this boat2025 Staake Trophy (2025-03-22): rating 0.82, fleet rating alone 0.75, offset +0.07; record 0-15 in this boatBrenton Cove Team Race (2026-03-21): rating 1.35, fleet rating alone 1.29, offset +0.07; record 12-6 in this boatAlymers Team race (2026-04-12): rating 1.38, fleet rating alone 1.29, offset +0.09; record 5-4 in this boatTeam race rating

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 8 graded regattas (78 matches) the record is 28–50 against 22.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.5). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.

DateRegattaRole Value Perf. RecordExp.
wins
Δ Surprise
(bits)
P(this good
or better)
2026-04-12Alymers Team raceskipper1.851.345–45.8−0.510.386%
2026-03-21Brenton Cove Team Raceskipper1.742.3112–69.6+0.571.018%
2025-03-222025 Staake Trophyskipper1.25-1.750–150.3≤−3.000.4>99%
2025-03-15Mass Maritime Team Race Inviteskipper1.221.391–70.9+0.170.060%
2024-04-06Alymers Team Race Inviteskipper1.231.535–44.5+0.290.151%
2024-03-10Salve Regina Team Race Inviteskipper1.102.501–90.3+1.400.924%
2024-03-03McMerrick Cup SUNDAYskipper1.003.112–30.5+2.112.67%
2024-03-02McMerrick Cup SATURDAYskipper0.772.352–20.7+1.591.615%

Regatta results

Regatta Role Div Races Avg Rating
Fall 2026 Team page Season
Sister Esther Whalen Trophy Skipper A 10 13.7 1.51
Shields Trophy Keelboat Skipper A 7 5.1 0.68
McMillan Cup Keelboat Skipper A 6 7.3 -0.68
Harman Cup Keelboat Skipper A 8 4.6 0.88
Callagy Ross '14 Regatta Skipper A 14 4.6 2.01
Spring 2026 Team page Season
New England Dinghy Tournament Skipper B 9 6.1 -0.00
J70 Invite #2 2026 Keelboat Skipper A 15 3.5 0.93
Icebreaker Fleet Race Skipper A 5 7.8 1.32
CENTRAL 1 FLEET RACE Skipper A 4 2.2 0.34
Brenton Cove Team Race Skipper TR 18 67% —
Alymers Team race Skipper TR 9 56% —
Fall 2025 Team page Season
Shields Trophy Keelboat Skipper A 2 6.0 0.47
Salt Pond Saturday Skipper A 5 8.8 0.81
NEISA Fall Tournament Skipper B 2 3.0 0.15
McMillan Cup Keelboat Crew A 7 7.4 —
Great Herring Pond Open Skipper A 7 3.9 2.13
The George Warren Smith Trophy 25 Skipper A 7 12.0 1.70
Spring 2025 Team page Season
Oberg Trophy Skipper B 6 14.0 0.72
Mass Maritime Team Race Invite Skipper TR 10 20% —
J70 Invite #1 Keelboat Skipper A 14 3.2 1.55
2025 Staake Trophy Skipper TR 15 0% —
2025 J70 Invite #2 Keelboat Skipper A 12 3.9 0.94
Fall 2024 Team page Season
Shields Trophy Keelboat Crew A 7 8.1 —
Salt Pond Invite Skipper A 4 2.5 3.48
Penobscot Bay Open Skipper A 8 15.1 —
NEISA Match Race Championship Keelboat Crew A 3 7.0 —
McMillan Cup Keelboat Crew A 4 8.8 —
Hewitt Trophy Skipper B 9 12.7 -0.07
The George Warren Smith Trophy 24 Skipper B 10 17.3 -0.15
Spring 2024 Team page Season
Salve Regina Team Race Invite Skipper TR 10 10% —
Salve Regina Saturday FR Invite Skipper B 10 2.4 2.75
McMerrick Cup SUNDAY Skipper TR 5 40% —
McMerrick Cup SATURDAY Skipper TR 8 38% —
CGA J70 Invite #1 Keelboat Crew A 9 5.2 —
Central 1 Skipper B 6 5.2 1.68
Alymers Team Race Invite Skipper TR 9 56% —
Fall 2023 Team page Season
Nickerson Trophy Skipper B 10 13.5 0.35
New York Maritime Fall Open Skipper A 12 9.5 0.77
NEISA Match Race Championship Keelboat Reserve A 3 8.0 —
The Hatch Brown Trophy Crew B 1 15.0 —
Great Herring Pond Open Skipper A 10 4.4 1.57
The Chris Loder Trophy Skipper B 5 6.4 1.27
Callagy Ross Trophy Skipper B 8 9.4 -1.02

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →