| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | 5–4 |
| 3 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 4–5 |
| 4 |  |
Fairfield University | Stags | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 23,921 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 18 matches (94%) with a log-loss of 0.240 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.66 ± 0.41: an orderly event, more orderly than 98% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown University Bears | 1 | 6.28 school +0.24 | Grant Adam / Spencer Dellenbaugh 2.44 Daniel Van Heeckeren / Mara Oancea 1.75 Keller Morrison / Lucian Sharpe 1.81 | 88% | 9–0 (100%) | +1.0 |
| 2 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 2 | 4.64 school +0.27, home +0.42 | Andy Leshaw / Oliver Browne 1.39 Zach Earnshaw / Henry Kyburg-Abbott 1.23 John Van Zanten / Mallory Dietsch | 50% | 5–4 (56%) | +0.5 |
| 3 | Boston University Terriers | 3 | 4.53 school +0.10 | John Cabell / Rufus Burnes Heath Renato Korzinek / Jack Cariaso Richard Kalich / Sam Whipple 1.50 | 48% | 4–5 (44%) | −0.3 |
| 4 | Fairfield University Stags | 4 | 3.04 | Michael Cunniff / Andrew White Timothy Cronin / Santiago Pastor Nolan Cooper / Thomas Raynor | 13% | 0–9 (0%) | −1.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown University | 6.28 | 9.28 | 9–0 | 8.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 32% |
| 2 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 4.64 | 4.93 | 5–4 | 4.5 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 3 | Boston University | 4.53 | 4.31 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 4 | Fairfield University | 3.04 | 0.04 | 0–9 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Leshaw | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 1.39 | 1.68 | 5–4 | 4.5 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Zach Earnshaw | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 1.23 | 1.53 | 5–4 | 4.5 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 51% |
| John Van Zanten | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 1.18 | 1.48 | 5–4 | 4.5 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 51% |
| John Cabell | Boston University | 1.30 | 1.08 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Richard Kalich | Boston University | 1.50 | 1.29 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 75% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Buccaneers | Terriers | Stags | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Fairfield University Stags | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Buccaneers | Terriers | Stags | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Fairfield University Stags | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Buccaneers | Terriers | Stags | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 1–2 | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Fairfield University Stags | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Stags | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Buccaneers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Stags | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Buccaneers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Stags | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Stags | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Buccaneers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Stags | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Stags | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Terriers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Stags | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Stags | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Stags | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brown University | Bears | Daniel Van Heeckeren '26 Grant Adam '23 Keller Morrison '25 |
Mara Oancea '27 Spencer Dellenbaugh '23 Lucian Sharpe '24 |
|
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | Andy Leshaw '25 John Van Zanten '25 Zach Earnshaw '27 |
Oliver Browne '27 Mallory Dietsch '27 Henry Kyburg-Abbott '27 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | John Cabell '26 Renato Korzinek '25 Richard Kalich '26 |
Rufus Burnes Heath '27 Jack Cariaso '25 Sam Whipple '25 |
|
Fairfield University | Stags | Michael Cunniff '26 Nolan Cooper '25 Timothy Cronin '27 |
Andrew White '25 Thomas Raynor '25 Santiago Pastor '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
