Fairfield University '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.47 (fleet 0.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–15 (12%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 0–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 2–15 against 3.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-13 | Alymers Team race | skipper | 0.64 | 0.06 | 2–6 | 2.7 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2024-04-06 | Alymers Team Race Invite | skipper | 0.44 | -2.56 | 0–9 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SHU Trophy 2026 | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 1.45 |
| Eli Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 15.8 | — |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunday Salve Invite | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.0 | 0.34 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | 0.44 |
| Alymers Team race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SHU Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.2 | 1.16 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Central 1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.7 | -0.76 |
| Alymers Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| 2024 Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | 1.74 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 14.4 | 0.49 |
| C - Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.4 | -0.23 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Timothy Cronin |  Wellesley High School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
