2024 Icebreaker Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 9 18 27
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 24 11 35
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 21 25 46
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 18 30 48
5 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 16 37 53
6 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 45 33 78
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 42 45 87
8 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 63 28 91
9 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 50 53 103
10 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 68 38 106
11 Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 45 69 114
12 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 46 70 116
13 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 56 61 117
14 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 49 70 119
15 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 59 67 126
16 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 66 69 135
17 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 80 65 145
18 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 89 59 148
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 3 1 1 3 1 9 Blake Vogel '26
Thomas Mazzeo '26
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 2 4 2 6 2 16 Nolan Cooper '25
Wilson Kaznoski '24
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 5 2 6 2 3 18 Daniel Van Heeckeren '26
Anna Steffen '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 8 4 1 7 21 Adam Larzelere '25
Stefano Chiampo '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 8 5 3 4 4 24 Harry Kaya Prager '25
Sean Beaver '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 12 6 5 9 10 42 Keller Morrison '25
Spencer Dellenbaugh '23
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 4 12 10 10 9 45 James Jagielski '25
Solomiiia Kachur '26
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 7 7 9 7 15 45 Audrey Commerford '25 [1-4]
Jordynn Johnson '27 [5]
Lane Kaeyer '27 [1-4]
Sabina Coroi '27 [5]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 6 9 BKD 14 8 46 Walter Chiles '26
Isabelle Vagell '26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 10 16 7 11 5 49 John Divelbiss '24
Celia Del Rosso '24
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 15 3 11 5 16 50 Cameron Frary '24 [1-5]
Matthew Straub '27 [1-2, 5]
Harrison Nash '27 [3-4]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 9 10 14 17 6 56 Isabella Cho '27
Andrew Wagner '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 11 11 16 8 13 59 Ted Richardsson '27
Bella Gioseffi '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 16 14 8 13 12 63 Alden Coldreck '25
Parker Brown '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 13 15 12 15 11 66 James Sullivan '25
Trixie Williams '26
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 14 13 15 12 14 68 Ziyue Zhou '27
Nicholas Belev '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 17 17 13 16 17 80 Sonja Krajewski '26
Autumn Horsey '27
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 18 18 17 18 18 89 Iain Gillespie '26
Brian Pervere '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 1 1 6 1 2 11 Maria Skouloudi '27
Cody Lamoreux '27
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 5 3 4 2 4 18 Annecy Kagan '26
Michael Salvatore '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 2 1 15 5 25 Greta Traver '27
Harrison Vose '26
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 4 5 7 8 28 Anthony Purcell '24
Ella Gibson '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 7 6 10 6 1 30 Jean-Luc Depardieu '27
William Salerno '25
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 3 5 RDG 4 14 33 Caitlin Derby '26
Alex Forrest '26
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 9 9 2 8 9 37 Timothy Cronin '27
Jane Matthews '26
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 6 11 8 3 10 38 Juan Carrau Carrero '25
Akash Shah '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 15 8 9 10 3 45 Patience Gifford '27
Tucker Gibbs '27
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 12 7 7 11 16 53 Harry Stevenson '24 [1-5]
Maggie Forger '25 [1-4]
Harrison Nash '27 [5]
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen DNF DNS 3 12 6 59 William Sargent '21
Audrey Bilotta '26
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 13 14 12 9 13 61 Max Boni '28 [1-2, 5]
Sylvia Burns '26 [3-4]
Ryan Tedeschi '28 [1-2, 5]
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 8 10 17 13 17 65 Brendan Obrien '27
Claire Komar '27
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 17 17 16 5 12 67 Lucas Wiatrowski '27
Amelia Fisher '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 14 16 14 18 7 69 Jake Lacoche '26
Cameron Mclean '26
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 16 13 13 16 11 69 Rohan Shah '27
Allysen Bell '24
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 10 RDG BKD 17 15 70 William Procter '24 [1-5]
Dalyan Yet '26 [1-2]
Talia Trigg '26 [3-5]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 11 12 15 14 18 70 Cole Capizzo '27 [1-2, 5]
Joseph Gedraitis '27 [3-4]
Nicholas Delvecchio '27 [1-2, 5]
Cole Capizzo '27 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats11335
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 122181816
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 233557
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags442218
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen2323151517
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers55779
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds66442
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers779911
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 12424121210
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 2151517171
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 31616242412
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies88664
Olin College of EngineeringOlin College of Engineering Phoenix99111123
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1717113
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11010886
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21111232315
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3121210108
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1818161624

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats22446
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 111171715
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 244668
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags331117
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen2424161618
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers668810
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds55331
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers88101012
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 1232311119
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 2161618182
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 31515232311
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies77553
Olin College of EngineeringOlin College of Engineering Phoenix1010121224
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1818224
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 199775
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21212242416
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 31111997
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1717151523
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bates College Bates College Cameron Frary '24 [1-5] Matthew Straub '27 [1-2, 5]
Harrison Nash '27 [3-4]
Bobcats Harry Stevenson '24 [1-5] Maggie Forger '25 [1-4]
Harrison Nash '27 [5]
Brown University Brown University Daniel Van Heeckeren '26 Anna Steffen '25
Bears 1 Jean-Luc Depardieu '27 William Salerno '25
Brown University Brown University Keller Morrison '25 Spencer Dellenbaugh '23
Bears 2 Patience Gifford '27 Tucker Gibbs '27
Fairfield University Fairfield University Nolan Cooper '25 Wilson Kaznoski '24
Stags Timothy Cronin '27 Jane Matthews '26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy John Divelbiss '24 Celia Del Rosso '24
Buccaneers Cole Capizzo '27 [1-2, 5]
Joseph Gedraitis '27 [3-4]
Nicholas Delvecchio '27 [1-2, 5]
Cole Capizzo '27 [3-4]
McGill University McGill University Ziyue Zhou '27 Nicholas Belev '26
Redbirds Juan Carrau Carrero '25 Akash Shah '27
Middlebury College Middlebury College Walter Chiles '26 Isabelle Vagell '26
Panthers William Procter '24 [1-5] Dalyan Yet '26 [1-2]
Talia Trigg '26 [3-5]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Isabella Cho '27 Andrew Wagner '26
Huskies Max Boni '28 [1-2, 5]
Sylvia Burns '26 [3-4]
Ryan Tedeschi '28 [1-2, 5]
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering James Jagielski '25 Solomiiia Kachur '26
Phoenix Rohan Shah '27 Allysen Bell '24
Tufts University Tufts University Adam Larzelere '25 Stefano Chiampo '26
Jumbos 1 Greta Traver '27 Harrison Vose '26
Tufts University Tufts University Harry Kaya Prager '25 Sean Beaver '27
Jumbos 2 Maria Skouloudi '27 Cody Lamoreux '27
Tufts University Tufts University Blake Vogel '26 Thomas Mazzeo '26
Jumbos 3 Annecy Kagan '26 Michael Salvatore '26
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Iain Gillespie '26 Brian Pervere '24
Minutemen William Sargent '21 Audrey Bilotta '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire James Sullivan '25 Trixie Williams '26
Wildcats 1 Jake Lacoche '26 Cameron Mclean '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Ted Richardsson '27 Bella Gioseffi '27
Wildcats 2 Lucas Wiatrowski '27 Amelia Fisher '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Sonja Krajewski '26 Autumn Horsey '27
Wildcats 3 Brendan Obrien '27 Claire Komar '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Alden Coldreck '25 Parker Brown '26
Rams Anthony Purcell '24 Ella Gibson '27
University of Vermont University of Vermont Audrey Commerford '25 [1-4]
Jordynn Johnson '27 [5]
Lane Kaeyer '27 [1-4]
Sabina Coroi '27 [5]
Catamounts Caitlin Derby '26 Alex Forrest '26

Conditions — 03/10/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 989.7 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.7 kn
avg  ·  max 13.9 kn
Gusts to 30.7 kn
From W (271°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine5.7 hrs Humidity72% Pressure989.7 hPa Rain0.15 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.38 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →