University of Vermont '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.74 (fleet 2.35) | 242 of 328 | +0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–55 (25%) as crew 2–14 (12%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 17–11 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 1–17 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 0–18 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 0–9 | 2–14 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (87 matches) the record is 20–67 against 18.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Brenton Cove Team Race | skipper | 2.04 | 3.46 | 13–5 | 8.0 | +1.42 | 5.0 | 1% |
| 2026-02-28 | McMerrick Team Race Saturday | skipper | 2.08 | 2.74 | 4–4 | 3.2 | +0.66 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 2025-03-29 | Callahan Trophy | skipper | 1.74 | 2.11 | 1–5 | 0.7 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 2025-03-22 | 64th Jan Friis Team Race | skipper | 1.61 | -1.39 | 0–12 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| 2024-03-30 | Callahan Team Race | skipper | 1.49 | -1.51 | 0–6 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 2024-03-09 | Franny Charles Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.46 | -1.54 | 0–12 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.50 | -1.50 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 2023-03-25 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | crew | 1.76 | 0.44 | 2–14 | 5.0 | −1.32 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.5 | 2.14 |
| NEISA Women's Fleet Race Championship -Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 2.42 |
| McMerrick Team Race Sunday | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| McMerrick Team Race Saturday | Skipper | TR | 13 | 31% | — |
| Little 3 | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.5 | 3.09 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.9 | 1.85 |
| Brenton Cove Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.5 | 2.02 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.8 | 1.92 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.9 | 2.19 |
| The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.3 | 2.01 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2025 Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 2.65 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 12.3 | 2.99 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy 2025 | Skipper | B | 3 | 14.3 | 1.55 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Western National Semi Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.9 | 1.72 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.2 | 1.23 |
| NEISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.3 | 3.88 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.8 | 1.91 |
| CNU Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.6 | 2.09 |
| Callahan Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Admiral’s Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.0 | 2.11 |
| 64th Jan Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 13.4 | 1.38 |
| Women's Urn Trophy/NEISA Women’s Fall Champs Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.6 | 0.98 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.5 | 1.58 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2024 Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.9 | 1.48 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.8 | 1.58 |
| The 26th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.1 | 2.32 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's New England Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.5 | 1.87 |
| Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 13.8 | 1.71 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.7 | 1.13 |
| Franny Charles Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| Central 4 UNH | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 1.78 |
| Callahan Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| 2024 Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 1.29 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.2 | 1.49 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.5 | 1.54 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.0 | 1.30 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.2 | 1.04 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| BU Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.0 | 1.90 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Toole Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 1.98 |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Navy Women's Spring Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.6 | 1.26 |
| Icebreaker Invitational | Skipper | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 12% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.2 | 1.56 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.5 | 1.23 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.8 | 0.63 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.2 | 1.66 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Caitlin Derby |  West Ottawa High School |
'22 |
| ISSA | Caitlin Derby |  Black River Public School |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
