64th Jan Friis Team Race

HostCoast Guard
Date03/22/2025
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–5
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–4
3	Harvard University	Crimson	12–4
4	Boston College	Eagles	12–6
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	5–6
6	University of Rhode Island	Rams	4–7
7	Brown University	Bears	5–9
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–9
9	College of Charleston	Cougars	3–9
10	University of Vermont	Catamounts	0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,169 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 54 of 72 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.459 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.17 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 63% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	11.64 school +0.38	Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 4.29 Oliver Stokke / Claire Buckley 3.43 Mathieu Dale / Addyson Fisher 3.54 9–3 Mathieu Dale / Jed Lory 3.52 3–2	60%	12–5 (71%)	+1.9
2	Stanford University Cardinal	1	12.28 school +0.34	Vanessa Lahrkamp / Ashtyn Tierney 4.16 Thomas Sitzmann / Alice Schmid 4.04 Reade Decker / Piper Blackband 3.72	76%	12–4 (75%)	−0.1
3	Harvard University Crimson	2	12.03 school +0.20	Mitchell Callahan / Rosella Irfan 3.78 10–4 Robby Meek / Christina Chen 3.67 10–2 Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 4.38 9–2 Justin Callahan / Aidan Pesce 4.19 3–2 Robby Meek / Kennedy Leehealey 3.83 2–2 Harrison Strom / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.49 1–0 Mitchell Callahan / Alexandra Dorofeev 4.02 1–0	69%	12–4 (75%)	+0.9
4	Boston College Eagles	5	11.30 school +0.27	Peter Busch / Emily Marlas 3.71 7–4 Michael Kirkman / Matt Budington 3.61 7–4 Jack Redmond / Nick Budington 3.71 6–4 Jack Redmond / Matt Budington 3.67 5–2 Michael Kirkman / Lanie Ferrarone 3.56 5–2 Peter Busch / Brendan Peary 3.78 4–2 Jack Redmond / Emily Marlas 3.55 1–0 Peter Busch / Lanie Ferrarone 3.80 1–0	56%	12–6 (67%)	+2.0
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7	10.88 home +0.36	Colman Schofield / Charles Pohl 3.95 Nicholas Reeser / Daniel Neville 3.63 Bradley Whiteway / Sarah Krajewski 3.01 4–4 Jack Derry / Sarah Krajewski 2.70 1–2	48%	5–6 (45%)	−0.3
6	University of Rhode Island Rams	9	9.85 school −0.12	Kerem Erkmen / Abbie Chipps 4.08 Tyler Nash / Ursula Budd 3.05 Owen Grainger / Eric Pohl 2.82 2–5 Christopher Chwalk / Eric Pohl 2.86 2–2	26%	4–7 (36%)	+1.1
7	Brown University Bears	4	11.07 school +0.34	Leyton Borcherding / Helen Horangic 3.48 6–8 Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.89 4–9 Cam Spriggs / Brianna Ross 3.37 4–7 Blake Behrens / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.58 2–3 Mason Stang / Olivia Miller 3.31 2–0	59%	6–9 (40%)	−2.9
8	Tufts University Jumbos	8	9.94 school +0.22	Kurt Stuebe / Naomi Pedersen 3.27 Ben Mueller / Kate Castleberry 3.42 5–6 Wyatt Bischoff / Cindy Wang 2.95 5–6 Ben Mueller / Cody Lamoreux 3.58 1–4 Wyatt Bischoff / Cody Lamoreux 3.01 1–4	33%	6–10 (38%)	+0.7
9	College of Charleston Cougars	6	10.69 school +0.37	Axel Stordahl / Lucy Zinn 3.04 Benjamin Dufour / Andrea Melnik 3.65 Noah Zittrer / Clara Murphy 3.62	52%	3–9 (25%)	−3.2
10	University of Vermont Catamounts	10	5.41 school −0.28	Gavin Sanborn / Ryan Thompson 2.11 0–10 Caitlin Derby / Dee Mccormick 1.61 0–9 Marco Welch / Rowan Henkes 1.87 0–9 Caitlin Derby / Rowan Henkes 1.76 0–3 Marco Welch / Dee Mccormick 1.78 0–3 Gavin Sanborn / Lane Kaeyer 2.10 0–2	1%	0–12 (0%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	University of Rhode Island	9.85	10.52	4–7	2.9	+0.67	0.6	29%
4	Boston College	11.30	11.86	12–6	10.0	+0.57	0.8	21%
1	Roger Williams University	11.64	12.20	12–5	10.1	+0.56	0.7	23%
3	Harvard University	12.03	12.36	12–4	11.1	+0.33	0.2	41%
8	Tufts University	9.94	10.20	6–10	5.3	+0.25	0.1	44%
2	Stanford University	12.28	12.23	12–4	12.1	−0.06	0.0	67%
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.88	10.74	5–6	5.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
7	Brown University	11.07	9.97	6–9	8.9	−1.10	2.2	98%
9	College of Charleston	10.69	8.65	3–9	6.2	−2.04	4.1	>99%
10	University of Vermont	5.41	2.41	0–12	0.1	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	4.08	4.75	4–7	2.9	+0.67	0.6	29%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	4.29	4.86	12–5	10.1	+0.56	0.7	23%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.42	3.67	6–10	5.3	+0.25	0.1	44%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.01	3.12	4–4	3.8	+0.11	0.0	59%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	3.04	1.00	3–9	6.2	−2.04	4.1	>99%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.65	1.61	3–9	6.2	−2.04	4.1	>99%
Jack Derry	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.70	0.28	1–2	1.5	−2.42	0.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	60%
1	2	Stanford University	College of Charleston	83%
1	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	75%
1	4	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	81%
1	5	Boston College	University of Vermont	100%
1	6	Harvard University	College of Charleston	80%
1	7	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	66%
1	8	Stanford University	Brown University	77%
1	9	Tufts University	University of Vermont	99%
1	10	University of Rhode Island	Boston College	20%	upset
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	College of Charleston	57%
1	12	Harvard University	Brown University	72%
1	13	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	100%
1	14	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	92%
1	15	Boston College	Tufts University	77%
1	16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	45%	upset
1	17	College of Charleston	University of Vermont	100%
1	18	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	90%
1	19	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	83%
1	20	Boston College	Stanford University	26%	upset
1	21	Brown University	University of Vermont	99%
1	22	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	75%
1	23	Tufts University	College of Charleston	31%	upset
1	24	Harvard University	Stanford University	44%	upset
1	25	Boston College	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
1	26	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	99%
1	27	Tufts University	Brown University	24%	upset
1	28	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	84%
1	29	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	72%
1	30	Boston College	Harvard University	35%	upset
1	31	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	49%	upset
1	32	Stanford University	University of Vermont	100%
1	33	Roger Williams University	Brown University	64%
1	34	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
1	35	Boston College	College of Charleston	66%
1	36	Stanford University	Tufts University	91%
1	37	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	85%
1	38	Harvard University	University of Vermont	100%
1	39	College of Charleston	Brown University	35%	upset
1	40	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	67%
1	41	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	66%
1	42	Harvard University	Tufts University	92%
1	43	University of Rhode Island	College of Charleston	30%	upset
1	44	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	99%
1	45	Boston College	Brown University	48%	upset
1	53	Boston College	Tufts University	77%
1	54	Tufts University	Boston College	23%	upset
1	55	Boston College	Tufts University	76%
1	62	Roger Williams University	Boston College	58%
1	63	Roger Williams University	Boston College	58%
1	64	Boston College	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
2	56	Harvard University	Brown University	73%
2	57	Harvard University	Brown University	73%
2	65	Stanford University	Harvard University	55%
2	66	Stanford University	Harvard University	55%
2	67	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	34%	upset
2	68	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	66%
2	71	Harvard University	Boston College	65%
3	58	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	92%
3	59	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	92%
3	69	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	34%	upset
3	70	Boston College	Harvard University	35%	upset
3	72	Harvard University	Boston College	65%
4	46	College of Charleston	University of Vermont	99%
4	47	Brown University	Tufts University	76%
4	48	Brown University	University of Vermont	99%
4	49	Tufts University	College of Charleston	31%	upset
4	50	Brown University	College of Charleston	65%
4	51	Tufts University	University of Vermont	99%
4	60	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	66%
4	61	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	66%
7	52	Brown University	Tufts University	76%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Cardinal	Crimson	Eagles	Bears	Rams	Bears	Jumbos	Cougars	Catamounts
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–4	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	7–2	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–1	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	11–4	W	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Cardinal	Crimson	Eagles	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–1	✕	L	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	3–1	W	✕	W	–	–
Harvard University Crimson	3–2	–	L	✕	W	W
Boston College Eagles	0–1	–	–	L	✕	–
Brown University Bears	0–2	–	–	L	–	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Cardinal	Crimson	Eagles	Rams
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–0	✕	W	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	2–1	L	✕	–	–	W
Harvard University Crimson	1–1	–	–	✕	W	–
Boston College Eagles	1–1	–	–	L	✕	–
University of Rhode Island Rams	0–2	–	L	–	–	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bears	Bears	Jumbos	Cougars	Catamounts
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–0	✕	W	–	–	–	–
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	0–2	L	✕	–	–	–	–
Brown University Bears	3–0	–	–	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–1	–	–	L	✕	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	1–2	–	–	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–3	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Round 7

	Team	Rec.	Bears	Jumbos
	Brown University Bears	1–0	✕	W
	Tufts University Jumbos	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
2	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
4	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
5	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
6	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
7	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
8	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
9	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
10	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
11	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
12	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
13	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
15	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
16	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
17	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
18	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
19	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
20	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
22	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
23	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
24	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
26	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
27	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
28	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
29	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
30	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
31	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
32	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
33	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
34	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
37	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
38	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
39	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
41	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
42	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
43	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
44	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
45	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
53	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
54	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
55	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
62	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
63	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
64	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
56	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
57	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
65	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
66	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
67	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
71	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
58	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
69	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
70	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
72	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
46	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
47	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
48	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
49	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
50	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
51	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
60	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
61	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
52	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Carlos De Castro '26 Mathieu Dale '25 Oliver Stokke '26	Carly Kiss '25 Addyson Fisher '27 Jed Lory '27 Claire Buckley '25
Stanford University	Cardinal	Reade Decker '27 Thomas Sitzmann '27 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Piper Blackband '28 Alice Schmid '27 Ashtyn Tierney '28
Harvard University	Crimson	Harrison Strom '28 Justin Callahan '26 Mitchell Callahan '26 Robby Meek '27	Alexandra Dorofeev '25 Kennedy Leehealey '26 Aidan Pesce '26 Rosella Irfan '27 Christina Chen '27
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Redmond '26 Michael Kirkman '25 Peter Busch '26	Nick Budington '25 Matt Budington '25 Emily Marlas '26 Lanie Ferrarone '28 Brendan Peary '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Bradley Whiteway '26 Colman Schofield '25 Jack Derry '25 Nicholas Reeser '25	Sarah Krajewski '26 Charles Pohl '26 Daniel Neville '25
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Christopher Chwalk '28 Kerem Erkmen '25 Owen Grainger '28 Tyler Nash '26	Eric Pohl '28 Abbie Chipps '25 Ursula Budd '27
Brown University	Bears	Blake Behrens '27 Cam Spriggs '27 Guthrie Braun '26 Leyton Borcherding '25 Mason Stang '25	Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Brianna Ross '26 Emily Mueller '25 Helen Horangic '25 Olivia Miller '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Kurt Stuebe '27 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Kate Castleberry '28 Cody Lamoreux '27 Naomi Pedersen '25 Cindy Wang '25
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Noah Zittrer '26	Lucy Zinn '28 Andrea Melnik '27 Clara Murphy '27
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Caitlin Derby '26 Gavin Sanborn '25 Marco Welch '28	Dee Mccormick '28 Rowan Henkes '28 Ryan Thompson '26 Lane Kaeyer '27

Conditions — 03/22/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1005.8 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.6 kn

avg · max 10.6 kn

Gusts to 24.3 kn

From SW (217°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1005.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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