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Callahan Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8–1
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6–3
3 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3–6
4 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 23,468 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.487 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.15 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 27% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tufts University
Jumbos		26.90
school +0.18		Ella Hubbard / Lilah Parker 2.55
Samantha Jensen / Lilly Ladd 2.13
Meredith Broadus / Maisie Macgillivray 2.01		64%8–1 (89%)+2.2
2Roger Williams University
Hawks		17.67
school +0.32, home +0.41		Katherine Mcgagh / Maren Matthews 1.93
Tavia Smith / Elyssa Franklin 2.38
Lucy Meagher / Maggie Fleming 2.64 5–1
Lucy Meagher / Katharine Benagh 2.56 1–2		82%6–3 (67%)−1.4
3University of Rhode Island
Rams		36.10
school −0.14		Kytalin Hendrickson / Emaline Ouellette 2.41
Leah Rickard / Ursula Budd 2.00
Katie Coughlin / Kaylee Good 1.79		46%3–6 (33%)−1.1
4University of Vermont
Catamounts		44.38
school −0.31		Audrey Commerford / Alex Forrest 1.76
Elizabeth Amelotte / Maddy Saffer 1.62
Caitlin Derby / Lane Kaeyer 1.49 0–6
Jordynn Johnson / Lane Kaeyer 0.89 1–2		8%1–8 (11%)+0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Tufts University6.908.718–15.8+1.822.68%
4University of Vermont4.384.751–80.7+0.370.153%
3University of Rhode Island6.105.193–64.1−0.910.793%
2Roger Williams University7.676.726–37.4−0.951.095%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Meredith BroadusTufts University2.013.838–15.8+1.822.68%
Jordynn JohnsonUniversity of Vermont0.892.321–20.3+1.440.829%
Audrey CommerfordUniversity of Vermont1.762.141–80.7+0.370.153%
Elizabeth AmelotteUniversity of Vermont1.621.991–80.7+0.370.153%
Katie CoughlinUniversity of Rhode Island1.790.893–64.1−0.910.793%
Lucy MeagherRoger Williams University2.641.696–37.4−0.951.095%
Katherine McgaghRoger Williams University1.930.986–37.4−0.951.095%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Tufts UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island69%
12Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Vermont96%
13Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont91%
14Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island83%
15University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Vermont89%
16Tufts UniversityRoger Williams University33%upset
27Tufts UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island69%
28Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Vermont96%
29Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont91%
210University of Rhode IslandRoger Williams University17%upset
211University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Vermont89%
212Tufts UniversityRoger Williams University33%upset
313Tufts UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island69%
314Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Vermont96%
315Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont91%
316Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island83%
317University of VermontUniversity of Rhode Island11%upset
318Roger Williams UniversityTufts University67%

Round 1

TeamRec.JumbosHawksRamsCatamounts
Tufts University Jumbos3–0✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks2–1L✕WW
University of Rhode Island Rams1–2LL✕W
University of Vermont Catamounts0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.JumbosHawksRamsCatamounts
Tufts University Jumbos3–0✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks1–2L✕LW
University of Rhode Island Rams2–1LW✕W
University of Vermont Catamounts0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.JumbosHawksRamsCatamounts
Tufts University Jumbos2–1✕LWW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–0W✕WW
University of Rhode Island Rams0–3LL✕L
University of Vermont Catamounts1–2LLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
2 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
4 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-5
5 University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
6 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-6
7 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-5-6
8 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
9 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
10 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
11 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-5-6
12 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
13 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
14 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
15 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
16 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-5-6
17 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-5-6
18 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/30/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1004.8 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.3 kn
avg  ·  max 15.2 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From W (275°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1004.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →