NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship

HostHarvard
Date04/15/2023
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–2
2	Dartmouth College	Big Green	12–5
3	Brown University	Bears	11–6
4	Boston College	Eagles	9–8
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	8–6
6	Harvard University	Crimson	5–9
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3–6
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	2–7
9	Tufts University	Jumbos	1–8
10	University of Vermont	Catamounts	0–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,260 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 60 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.427 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.48 ± 0.29: an orderly event, more orderly than 92% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	10.40 school +0.27	Emma Cowles / Helena Ware 3.26 12–2 Mia Nicolosi / Sarah Moeder 3.31 10–2 Carmen Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.53 10–2 Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 3.37 4–0 Carmen Cowles / Sarah Moeder 3.59 4–0 Emma Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.15 2–0	76%	14–2 (88%)	+1.9
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	3	9.50 school +0.36	Maddie Hawkins / Aisling Sullivan 3.52 Sarah Young / Yumi Yoshiyasu 2.67 Gray Hemans / Caroline Oyster 2.99 10–5 Taylor Eastman / Eliza Crocker 2.54 2–0	56%	12–5 (71%)	+2.4
3	Brown University Bears	4	9.53 school +0.25	Brielle Willoughby / Emilia Ruth 3.05 Blaire Mccarthy / Savannah Young 3.23 Caroline Bayless / Helen Horangic 3.00	54%	10–6 (62%)	+1.3
4	Boston College Eagles	5	9.52 school +0.28	Caroline Sibilly / Elliot Dyroff 2.82 Colleen O'Brien / Libby Redmond 3.16 4–6 Michaela O'Brien / Sara Schumann 3.20 4–6 Colleen O'Brien / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.16 4–2 Michaela O'Brien / Lilly Mathieu 3.32 4–2	54%	8–8 (50%)	−0.6
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	9.11	Dana Haig / Shayne Bersin 3.33 Brooke Schmelz / Samantha Karlson 2.96 Lucy Brock / Grace Mao 2.86 6–6 Emily Scherer / Grace Mao 2.44 2–0	50%	8–6 (57%)	+1.0
6	Harvard University Crimson	2	9.77 school +0.26, home +0.44	Cordelia Burn / Emily Launderville 3.10 Sarah Burn / Corinne Lee 2.99 Marbella Marlo / Juliana Ruggieri 2.94 2–8 Marbella Marlo / Ariel Wang 3.04 2–1	62%	4–9 (31%)	−4.1
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8	8.03	Emily Bornarth / Mia Quinlan 3.17 Emma Snead / Laura Slovensky 2.77 Julia Conneely / Leonora Krajewski 2.06	33%	2–6 (25%)	−0.6
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7	7.35 school +0.06	Kyra Phelan / Brooke Asherman 2.01 Elizabeth Kaplan / Holliss Hirsch 2.65 Lauren Russler / Luisa Louchheim 2.62	38%	1–2 (33%)	−0.1
9	Tufts University Jumbos	9	7.13 school +0.11	Samantha Jensen / Amelia Carlson 2.10 0–7 Annika Fedde / Alessandra Torres 2.35 1–5 Chloe Holder / Annabel De Alessi 2.67 1–5 Ella Hubbard / Lilly Ladd 2.25 1–4	22%	1–7 (12%)	−0.7
10	University of Vermont Catamounts	10	5.34 school −0.12	Grace Gear / Maddy Saffer 2.45 Caitlin Derby / Campbell Mcclellan Elizabeth Amelotte / Annabelle Williams 1.43	4%	0–9 (0%)	−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	10.40	11.25	14–2	12.1	+0.85	1.1	20%
2	Dartmouth College	9.50	10.23	12–5	9.6	+0.73	1.2	15%
3	Brown University	9.53	9.92	10–6	8.7	+0.39	0.4	33%
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.11	9.47	8–6	7.0	+0.35	0.2	39%
4	Boston College	9.52	9.33	8–8	8.6	−0.19	0.1	73%
8	Bowdoin College	7.35	6.91	1–2	1.1	−0.44	0.0	91%
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8.03	7.38	2–6	2.6	−0.65	0.3	88%
9	Tufts University	7.13	5.95	1–7	1.7	−1.17	0.6	95%
6	Harvard University	9.77	8.11	4–9	8.1	−1.66	4.6	>99%
10	University of Vermont	5.34	2.34	0–9	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.53	4.38	14–2	12.1	+0.85	1.1	20%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.26	4.11	14–2	12.1	+0.85	1.1	20%
Elizabeth Kaplan	Bowdoin College	2.65	2.22	1–2	1.1	−0.44	0.0	91%
Lauren Russler	Bowdoin College	2.62	2.18	1–2	1.1	−0.44	0.0	91%
Annika Fedde	Tufts University	2.35	1.34	1–5	1.5	−1.01	0.4	94%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.10	1.44	4–9	8.1	−1.66	4.6	>99%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	2.99	1.33	4–9	8.1	−1.66	4.6	>99%
Grace Gear	University of Vermont	2.45	-0.55	0–9	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%
Elizabeth Amelotte	University of Vermont	1.43	-1.57	0–9	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	45%	upset
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
1	3	Brown University	Tufts University	91%
1	4	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	89%
1	5	Yale University	Boston College	71%
1	6	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
1	7	Brown University	Harvard University	45%	upset
1	8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	86%
1	9	Yale University	Tufts University	97%
1	10	Boston College	University of Vermont	98%
1	11	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
1	12	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	90%
1	13	Yale University	Harvard University	65%
1	14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	97%
1	15	Boston College	Tufts University	91%
1	17	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	91%
1	18	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	98%
1	19	Harvard University	Tufts University	92%
1	20	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	43%	upset
1	22	Brown University	University of Vermont	98%
1	23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	69%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	41%	upset
1	25	Boston College	Harvard University	46%	upset
1	26	Yale University	University of Vermont	99%
1	28	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	41%	upset
1	29	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
1	30	Boston College	Dartmouth College	51%
1	31	Tufts University	University of Vermont	88%
1	32	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	79%
1	34	Brown University	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
1	35	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
1	36	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	87%
1	37	Harvard University	University of Vermont	99%
1	38	Yale University	Dartmouth College	70%
1	40	Brown University	Boston College	51%
1	41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	34%	upset
1	42	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	88%
1	43	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	93%
1	44	Yale University	Brown University	70%
2	46	Boston College	Brown University	49%	upset
2	47	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	59%
2	48	Yale University	Harvard University	65%
2	49	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	59%
2	50	Boston College	Harvard University	46%	upset
2	51	Dartmouth College	Yale University	30%	upset
2	52	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
2	53	Dartmouth College	Brown University	51%
2	54	Yale University	Boston College	71%
2	55	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	45%	upset
2	56	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	57%
2	57	Yale University	Brown University	70%
2	58	Dartmouth College	Boston College	49%	upset
2	59	Brown University	Harvard University	45%	upset
2	60	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	79%
2	61	Dartmouth College	Boston College	49%	upset
2	62	Yale University	Brown University	70%
2	63	Brown University	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
2	64	Yale University	Boston College	71%
2	65	Brown University	Boston College	51%
2	66	Dartmouth College	Yale University	30%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Green	Bears	Eagles	Engineers	Crimson	Bears	Bears	Jumbos	Catamounts
Yale University Bulldogs	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–4	L	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	7–2	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8–1	L	W	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Green	Bears	Eagles	Engineers	Crimson
Yale University Bulldogs	6–2	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–4	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	0–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Harvard University Crimson	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
2	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
4	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
6	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
7	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
8	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
10	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
11	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
12	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
14	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
15	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
16	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
17	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
18	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
19	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
20	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
22	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
23	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
24	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
25	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
27	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
28	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
29	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
30	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
31	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
33	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
34	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
35	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
36	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
37	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
39	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
40	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
41	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
42	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
43	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
45	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
46	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
47	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
48	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
49	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
50	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
51	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
52	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
53	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
54	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
55	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
56	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
57	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
58	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
59	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
60	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
61	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
62	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
63	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
65	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
66	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Carmen Berg '26 Sarah Moeder '26 Helena Ware '23 Ximena Escobar '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Gray Hemans '25 Maddie Hawkins '24 Sarah Young '25 Taylor Eastman '24	Caroline Oyster '24 Aisling Sullivan '22 Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Eliza Crocker '23
Brown University	Bears	Blaire Mccarthy '23 Brielle Willoughby '24 Caroline Bayless '23	Savannah Young '25 Emilia Ruth '23 Helen Horangic '25
Boston College	Eagles	Caroline Sibilly '26 Colleen O'Brien '24 Michaela O'Brien '24	Elliot Dyroff '26 Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Libby Redmond '24 Lilly Mathieu '23 Sara Schumann '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Schmelz '25 Dana Haig '22 Emily Scherer '23 Lucy Brock '25	Samantha Karlson '25 Shayne Bersin '25 Grace Mao '23
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Marbella Marlo '24 Sarah Burn '24	Emily Launderville '24 Juliana Ruggieri '23 Ariel Wang '23 Corinne Lee '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Emily Bornarth '24 Emma Snead '23 Julia Conneely '26	Mia Quinlan '24 Laura Slovensky '25 Leonora Krajewski '23
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Elizabeth Kaplan '23 Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26	Holliss Hirsch '25 Brooke Asherman '23 Luisa Louchheim '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Annika Fedde '23 Chloe Holder '23 Ella Hubbard '26 Samantha Jensen '24	Alessandra Torres '24 Annabel De Alessi '25 Lilly Ladd '26 Amelia Carlson '24
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Caitlin Derby '26 Elizabeth Amelotte '24 Grace Gear '23	Campbell Mcclellan '26 Annabelle Williams '24 Maddy Saffer '24

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.9 kn

avg · max 10.9 kn

Gusts to 21.0 kn

From ENE (68°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1015.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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