Bowdoin College '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.87 (fleet 4.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–56 (32%) as crew 3–3 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 10–35 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 16–21 | 3–3 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (88 matches) the record is 29–59 against 36.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 2.65 | 2.22 | 1–2 | 1.1 | −0.44 | 0.0 | 91% |
| 2023-04-08 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.61 | 2.89 | 3–11 | 2.5 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2023-04-01 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.71 | 1.02 | 1–10 | 3.2 | −1.68 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2023-03-18 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | skipper | 2.85 | 0.89 | 5–12 | 10.2 | −1.96 | 7.3 | >99% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 2.66 | 3.52 | 8–13 | 5.1 | +0.86 | 1.9 | 8% |
| 2022-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.60 | 1.02 | 3–7 | 6.3 | −1.58 | 3.7 | >99% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.20 | 2.27 | 5–1 | 4.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | crew | 2.20 | 2.31 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 4.45 |
| College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.2 | 4.23 |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.9 | 4.58 |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 29% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship, Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.9 | 4.33 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.0 | 3.63 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.2 | 3.53 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.9 | 3.13 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 3.03 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.5 | 4.77 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.0 | 3.31 |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.3 | 3.77 |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.4 | 3.98 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.6 | 3.58 |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 57% | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.5 | 3.68 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 2.88 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.0 | 3.13 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.2 | 2.69 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.8 | 2.85 |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.9 | 3.33 |
| 2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.5 | 3.02 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.4 | 3.49 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.7 | 0.51 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 3.15 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 2.87 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
