McMerrick Cup Team Race

HostRoger Williams
Date03/05/2022
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks 1	18–3
2	University of Rhode Island	Rams	15–6
3	Brown University	Bears	15–6
4	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	12–9
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	10–11
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks 2	7–14
7	Northeastern University	Huskies	5–16
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	2–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,158 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 69 of 84 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.482 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.16 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 62% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	1	8.57 school +0.35, home +0.35	Grant Gridley / Katharine Benagh 2.84 George Higham / Grace Woodcock 2.75 William Bailey / Ian Coen 2.17	77%	18–3 (86%)	+1.9
2	University of Rhode Island Rams	2	8.14 school −0.25	Ben Rosenberg / Elizabeth Taylor 2.83 Kerem Erkmen / Edward Gary Miles Williams / Emilia Marino	69%	15–6 (71%)	+0.5
3	Brown University Bears	4	7.86 school +0.15	Jed Bell / Menasha Leport 2.91 William George / Jacqueline Rice 2.25 12–3 Thomas Styron / Olivia Miller 2.33 12–3 Connor Macken / Olivia Miller 2.38 3–3 Leyton Borcherding / Jacqueline Rice 2.56 3–3	65%	15–6 (71%)	+1.3
4	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	8.06 school +0.14	Thomas Hall / Luisa Louchheim 9–6 Sam Bonauto / John Seider 7–5 Jonathan Chance / Jondall Norris 7–5 Sam Bonauto / Jondall Norris 5–4 Elizabeth Kaplan / John Seider 5–1 Thomas Hall / Elizabeth Kaplan 3–3 Jonathan Chance / John Seider 0–3	67%	12–9 (57%)	−2.1
5	Tufts University Jumbos	6	6.54	Abbie Carlson / Mallory Hood 2.28 Alexandra Talbot / Hailey Mckelvie 2.05 Chloe Holder / Paige Tyler 2.08	32%	10–11 (48%)	+3.2
6	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	5	7.11 school +0.35, home +0.35	Michaela Odonnell / Ethan Snyder 1.75 7–11 Luke Hosek / Izaiah Farr 2.16 3–12 Chase Reynolds / Ruby Hope 2.54 4–11 Emmett Nevel / Callum Robbins 7–8	45%	7–14 (33%)	−2.4
7	Northeastern University Huskies	7	6.36 school +0.17	Carter Brock / Isabella Welch 2.01 Joshua Dillon / Rob Brower Will Priebe / Jake Carlson	31%	5–16 (24%)	−1.5
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	5.46	Audrey Commerford / Lilia Hutchins Elizabeth Amelotte / Maddy Saffer Grace Gear / Madeline Kerr	14%	2–19 (10%)	−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Tufts University Jumbos	6.54	7.37	10–11	6.8	+0.84	2.0	7%
1	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	8.57	9.22	18–3	16.1	+0.64	0.8	24%
3	Brown University Bears	7.86	8.21	15–6	13.7	+0.35	0.3	34%
2	University of Rhode Island Rams	8.14	8.28	15–6	14.5	+0.14	0.1	50%
7	Northeastern University Huskies	6.36	5.91	5–16	6.5	−0.45	0.5	86%
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	5.46	4.98	2–19	3.0	−0.48	0.3	83%
4	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8.06	7.52	12–9	14.1	−0.54	0.8	91%
6	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	7.11	6.50	7–14	9.4	−0.61	1.0	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Abbie Carlson	Tufts University	2.28	3.11	10–11	6.8	+0.84	2.0	7%
Alexandra Talbot	Tufts University	2.05	2.89	10–11	6.8	+0.84	2.0	7%
George Higham	Roger Williams University	2.75	3.39	18–3	16.1	+0.64	0.8	24%
William George	Brown University	2.25	2.68	12–3	11.0	+0.43	0.3	39%
Thomas Styron	Brown University	2.33	2.76	12–3	11.0	+0.43	0.3	39%
Jed Bell	Brown University	2.91	3.27	15–6	13.7	+0.35	0.3	34%
Ben Rosenberg	University of Rhode Island	2.83	2.97	15–6	14.5	+0.14	0.1	50%
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	2.72	2.86	15–6	14.5	+0.14	0.1	50%
Elizabeth Kaplan	Bowdoin College	2.20	2.27	5–1	4.9	+0.08	0.0	71%
Joshua Dillon	Northeastern University	1.62	1.17	5–16	6.5	−0.45	0.5	86%
Will Priebe	Northeastern University	1.99	1.53	5–16	6.5	−0.45	0.5	86%
Michaela Odonnell	Roger Williams University	1.75	1.28	7–11	8.6	−0.47	0.5	87%
Audrey Commerford	University of Vermont	2.13	1.64	2–19	3.0	−0.48	0.3	83%
Elizabeth Amelotte	University of Vermont	0.93	0.44	2–19	3.0	−0.48	0.3	83%
Grace Gear	University of Vermont	1.88	1.39	2–19	3.0	−0.48	0.3	83%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	93%
1	2	Tufts University Jumbos	Northeastern University Huskies	66%
1	3	University of Rhode Island Rams	Brown University Bears	55%
1	4	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	76%
1	5	Northeastern University Huskies	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	16%	upset
1	6	Brown University Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	93%
1	7	Tufts University Jumbos	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	33%	upset
1	8	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	63%
1	9	Brown University Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	84%
1	10	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	25%	upset
1	11	University of Rhode Island Rams	University of Vermont Catamounts	94%
1	12	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Tufts University Jumbos	88%
1	13	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	75%
1	14	University of Rhode Island Rams	Northeastern University Huskies	87%
1	15	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	85%
1	16	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	University of Vermont Catamounts	96%
1	17	University of Rhode Island Rams	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	69%
1	18	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	78%
1	19	University of Vermont Catamounts	Northeastern University Huskies	29%	upset
1	20	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	68%
1	21	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos	83%
1	22	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	University of Vermont Catamounts	84%
1	23	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Brown University Bears	45%	upset
1	24	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Northeastern University Huskies	91%
1	25	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Vermont Catamounts	75%
1	26	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	44%	upset
1	27	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	Northeastern University Huskies	59%
1	28	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	37%	upset
2	29	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	92%
2	30	Tufts University Jumbos	Northeastern University Huskies	55%
2	31	University of Rhode Island Rams	Brown University Bears	59%
2	32	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	75%
2	33	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	83%
2	34	Brown University Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	91%
2	35	Tufts University Jumbos	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	31%	upset
2	36	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	61%
2	37	Brown University Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	80%
2	38	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	79%
2	39	University of Rhode Island Rams	University of Vermont Catamounts	93%
2	40	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Tufts University Jumbos	88%
2	41	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	74%
2	42	University of Rhode Island Rams	Northeastern University Huskies	85%
2	43	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	87%
2	44	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	University of Vermont Catamounts	96%
2	45	University of Rhode Island Rams	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	69%
2	46	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	78%
2	47	Northeastern University Huskies	University of Vermont Catamounts	71%
2	48	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	64%
2	49	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos	84%
2	50	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	University of Vermont Catamounts	83%
2	51	Brown University Bears	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	51%
2	52	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Northeastern University Huskies	89%
2	53	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Vermont Catamounts	73%
2	54	University of Rhode Island Rams	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	54%
2	55	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	Northeastern University Huskies	57%
2	56	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Brown University Bears	63%
3	57	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	88%
3	58	Northeastern University Huskies	Brown University Bears	21%	upset
3	59	University of Rhode Island Rams	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	69%
3	60	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	University of Vermont Catamounts	95%
3	61	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Brown University Bears	50%
3	62	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Rhode Island Rams	16%	upset
3	63	Northeastern University Huskies	University of Vermont Catamounts	71%
3	64	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	74%
3	65	Brown University Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	41%	upset
3	66	University of Vermont Catamounts	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8%	upset
3	67	Tufts University Jumbos	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	31%	upset
3	68	Northeastern University Huskies	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	11%	upset
3	69	University of Rhode Island Rams	University of Vermont Catamounts	93%
3	70	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	74%
3	71	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	83%
3	72	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Tufts University Jumbos	88%
3	73	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	University of Vermont Catamounts	82%
3	74	University of Rhode Island Rams	Northeastern University Huskies	84%
3	75	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	78%
3	76	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	63%
3	77	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	Northeastern University Huskies	56%
3	78	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Vermont Catamounts	72%
3	79	University of Rhode Island Rams	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	53%
3	80	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	36%	upset
3	81	Tufts University Jumbos	Northeastern University Huskies	50%
3	82	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	80%
3	83	Brown University Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	90%
3	84	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	60%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	1	Rams	Bears	Bears	Jumbos	2	Huskies	Catamounts
Roger Williams University Hawks 1	9–5	✕	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–2	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–3	L	W	W	✕	W	L	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks 2	9–5	✕	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	1	Rams	Bears	Bears	Jumbos	2	Huskies	Catamounts
Roger Williams University Hawks 1	9–5	✕	L	W	W	W	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	6–1	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks 2	9–5	✕	L	W	W	W	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	1	Rams	Bears	Bears	Jumbos	2	Huskies	Catamounts
Roger Williams University Hawks 1	7–7	✕	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–3	L	✕	L	W	L	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	W	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–3	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	4–3	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks 2	7–7	✕	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	3–4	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
2	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
3	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
4	Hawks 1	1-2-6	def.	Hawks 2	3-4-5
5	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
6	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
7	Jumbos	1-5-6	def.	Hawks 2	2-3-4 DSQ
8	Hawks 1	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
10	Hawks 2	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
11	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
12	Hawks 1	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
13	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks 2	3-4-5
14	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
15	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
16	Hawks 1	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
17	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Hawks 2	2-4-6
18	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
19	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Huskies	2-4-5
20	Hawks 1	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
21	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
22	Hawks 2	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
23	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
24	Hawks 1	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
25	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
26	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
27	Hawks 2	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
28	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks 1	4-5-6
29	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
30	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Huskies	2-3-6
31	Rams	2-3-4 DSQ	def.	Bears	1-5-6 DSQ
32	Hawks 1	1-2-3	def.	Hawks 2	4-5-6
33	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
34	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
35	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Hawks 2	2-4-6
36	Hawks 1	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
37	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
38	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks 2	3-4-5
39	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
40	Hawks 1	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
41	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks 2	3-5-6
42	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Huskies	2-4-5
43	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
44	Hawks 1	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
45	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Hawks 2	4-5-6
46	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
47	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
48	Hawks 1	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
49	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
50	Hawks 2	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
51	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
52	Hawks 1	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
53	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
54	Rams	3-4-6	def.	Polar Bears	1-2-5 DSQ
55	Hawks 2	2-3-5	def.	Huskies	1-4-6
56	Hawks 1	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
57	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
58	Huskies	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
59	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Hawks 2	4-5-6
60	Hawks 1	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
61	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
62	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
63	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
64	Hawks 1	1-2-3	def.	Hawks 2	4-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
66	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
67	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Hawks 2	2-3-6
68	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Hawks 1	3-4-5
69	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
70	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks 2	3-4-6
71	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
72	Hawks 1	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
73	Hawks 2	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
74	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
75	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
76	Hawks 1	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
77	Hawks 2	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
78	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
79	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
80	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hawks 1	2-5-6
81	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Huskies	2-3-6
82	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks 2	4-5-6
83	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
84	Hawks 1	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks 1	George Higham '23 Grant Gridley '22 William Bailey '24	Grace Woodcock '23 Katharine Benagh '24 Ian Coen '24
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Ben Rosenberg '23 Kerem Erkmen '25 Miles Williams '24	Elizabeth Taylor '24 Edward Gary '22 Emilia Marino '22
Brown University	Bears	Connor Macken '24 Jed Bell '23 Leyton Borcherding '25 Thomas Styron '24 William George '23	Olivia Miller '25 Menasha Leport '25 Jacqueline Rice '24
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Elizabeth Kaplan '23 Jonathan Chance '23 Sam Bonauto '25 Thomas Hall '25	John Seider '22 Jondall Norris '25 Luisa Louchheim '25 Elizabeth Kaplan '23
Tufts University	Jumbos	Abbie Carlson '22 Alexandra Talbot '22 Chloe Holder '23	Mallory Hood '22 Hailey Mckelvie '22 Paige Tyler '22
Roger Williams University	Hawks 2	Chase Reynolds '23 Emmett Nevel '25 Luke Hosek '24 Michaela Odonnell '24	Ruby Hope '25 Callum Robbins '22 Izaiah Farr '23 Ethan Snyder '25
Northeastern University	Huskies	Carter Brock '22 Joshua Dillon '25 Will Priebe '24	Isabella Welch '25 Rob Brower '23 Jake Carlson '25
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Audrey Commerford '25 Elizabeth Amelotte '24 Grace Gear '23	Lilia Hutchins '23 Maddy Saffer '24 Madeline Kerr '23

Conditions — 03/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1033.0 hPa

Temperature

36°F

↑ 40°F ↓ 26°F

Feels like 27°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 11.3 kn

Gusts to 17.9 kn

From WSW (242°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1033.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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