Brown University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.70 (fleet 3.71) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 107–66 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 5 | 27–14 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 4 | 41–23 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 2 | 14–10 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 14–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 15 graded regattas (173 matches) the record is 107–66 against 104.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-27 | College Sailing Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.88 | 5.88 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 72% |
| 2023-03-25 | Jan Friis Team Race | skipper | 2.93 | 2.71 | 5–11 | 5.6 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.88 | 3.81 | 13–1 | 12.0 | +0.93 | 0.6 | 34% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 5.92 | 3–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2023-03-05 | Sharpe Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 3.46 | 3–2 | 2.5 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 50% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.78 | 1.87 | 6–7 | 8.5 | −0.91 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 2022-03-19 | The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.04 | 3.34 | 13–8 | 11.8 | +0.30 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2022-03-12 | MIT Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.98 | 2.78 | 7–2 | 7.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.91 | 3.27 | 15–6 | 13.7 | +0.35 | 0.3 | 34% |
| 2021-10-30 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.84 | 2.20 | 4–5 | 5.3 | −0.64 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2021-10-23 | Norman G. Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.85 | 3.19 | 10–5 | 9.0 | +0.35 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2020-02-29 | Hap Moore Trophy | skipper | 2.61 | 3.45 | 10–4 | 7.9 | +0.84 | 1.3 | 16% |
| 2019-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.65 | 1.10 | 1–9 | 3.2 | −1.54 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.37 | 2.48 | 9–5 | 8.7 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 1.97 | 3.56 | 5–1 | 3.5 | +1.59 | 1.6 | 17% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| College Sailing Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 22 | 68% | — |
| College Sailing Open Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.5 | 3.35 |
| Open New England Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.0 | 3.78 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 3.10 |
| Jan Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 94% | — |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.5 | 3.88 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 3.37 |
| The Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.5 | 3.91 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.3 | 3.46 |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | A, B | 6 | 6.2 | — |
| CC Invite Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 2.28 |
| 31st Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.2 | 3.88 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Throphy | Skipper | C | 15 | 6.1 | 3.84 |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 62% | — |
| Connecticut Valley Dinghy Championship Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 2.73 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.4 | 3.67 |
| Norman G. Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.1 | 4.24 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 14.4 | 2.38 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.9 | 2.91 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 2.25 |
| Hap Moore Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 4.26 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| NEISA Showcase Qualifier | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 4.11 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.2 | 2.68 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.6 | 3.13 |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 1.91 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.8 | 2.73 |
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.1 | 3.37 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.8 | 2.46 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2018 | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.2 | 1.42 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 3.01 |
| Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 3.72 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.8 | 2.74 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.4 | 2.86 |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.2 | 2.90 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
