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Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 8–3
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8–3
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 8–3
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 5–6
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 8–4
6 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 7–5
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3–9
7 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3–9
9 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,407 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 55 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.628 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.39 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 14% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Yale University
Bulldogs		58.24
school +0.20		Dylan Dimarchi / Anisha Arcot 2.97
Nicholas Marwell / Becca Rose 2.84
Christophe Chaumont / Mina Cezairli 2.13 4–2
Sam Tobin / Mina Cezairli 2.27 4–1		48%8–3 (73%)+2.8
2Tufts University
Jumbos		19.81
school +0.14, home +0.39		Ansgar Jordan / Lindsay Powers 3.08
Samuel Merson / Emily Calandrella 3.33
Alex Fasolo / Margaret Veltri 2.75		83%8–3 (73%)−1.1
3Roger Williams University
Hawks		48.38
school +0.20		Cameron Wood / Kylie Freitas 2.84
John Walton / Kristi Dolan 2.62
Grant Gridley / Brendan Little 2.69		52%8–3 (73%)+2.3
4Boston University
Terriers		29.16
school −0.11		Casey Cabot / Erica Brown 2.96
Josh Dochoda / Shannon Macdonald 3.27
Kyle Dochoda / Gabriella Schmidt 2.96		70%7–6 (54%)−2.1
5Brown University
Bears		38.35
school +0.21		Jed Bell / Catherine Mcclenahan 2.37
Jack Murphy / Sawyer Balint 2.67
Tucker Weed / Madeleine Montagner 2.93		62%9–5 (64%)+0.3
6University of Vermont
Catamounts		87.30Cameron Nash / Gabrielle Myers 2.59
Thomas Harden / Isabella Arnaboldi 2.84
Joshua Stone / Kiley Roach 1.65 7–5
Nicholas Salvesen / Lucy Mulvihill 2.52 0–2		36%7–7 (50%)+2.0
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		95.92
school −0.07		Jeremy Mcculloch / Elizabeth Obermaier 1.77 2–8
Lulu Russell / Isabelle Yen 2.26 2–7
Julia Wyatt / Maile Jim 3–6
Alex Abate / Fiona Mckellar 2.24 2–6		12%3–9 (25%)+1.5
7University of Rhode Island
Rams		67.63
school −0.30		Christian Moffitt / Alyssa Hall 2.44
Michael O'Flaherty / Maguire Bennett 2.41
Parker Colantuono / Kevin Stamp 2.99		47%3–9 (25%)−2.6
9Northeastern University
Huskies		77.49
school +0.08		Caleb Niles / Jon Ewing 2.53
Zachary Bresnick / Sarah Pierce 2.25
Peter Morrissette / Rob Brower		42%2–10 (17%)−3.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Yale University8.249.568–35.2+1.322.66%
3Roger Williams University8.389.508–35.7+1.121.811%
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology5.926.833–91.5+0.911.118%
6University of Vermont7.308.027–75.0+0.731.117%
5Brown University8.358.469–58.7+0.110.056%
2Tufts University9.819.168–39.1−0.650.590%
4Boston University9.168.377–69.1−0.791.295%
7University of Rhode Island7.636.383–95.6−1.262.398%
9Northeastern University7.495.962–105.0−1.533.199%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Sam TobinYale University2.274.124–12.6+1.851.815%
Dylan DimarchiYale University2.974.298–35.2+1.322.66%
Joshua StoneUniversity of Vermont1.652.687–54.5+1.031.99%
Alex AbateMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.243.032–61.1+0.790.630%
Thomas HardenUniversity of Vermont2.843.567–75.0+0.731.117%
Jed BellBrown University2.372.489–58.7+0.110.056%
Ansgar JordanTufts University3.082.438–39.1−0.650.590%
Alex FasoloTufts University2.752.118–39.1−0.650.590%
Michael O'FlahertyUniversity of Rhode Island2.411.153–95.6−1.262.398%
Zachary BresnickNortheastern University2.250.732–105.0−1.533.199%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Boston UniversityBrown University71%
12Northeastern UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology77%
13Tufts UniversityRoger Williams University80%
14University of VermontUniversity of Rhode Island38%upset
15Yale UniversityBrown University48%upset
16Boston UniversityNortheastern University84%
17Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology91%
18University of VermontTufts University7%upset
19Yale UniversityBoston University27%upset
110Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology93%
111Roger Williams UniversityNortheastern University71%
112Tufts UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island90%
113Yale UniversityUniversity of Vermont74%
114Brown UniversityNortheastern University70%
115Roger Williams UniversityBoston University32%upset
116Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology98%
117University of Rhode IslandNortheastern University53%
118Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont77%
119Brown UniversityRoger Williams University49%upset
120Tufts UniversityNortheastern University91%
121Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology88%
122Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island69%
123Tufts UniversityYale University82%
124Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston University5%upset
125University of VermontBrown University23%upset
126Yale UniversityNortheastern University69%
127University of Rhode IslandMassachusetts Institute of Technology87%
128Tufts UniversityBrown University81%
129Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Vermont77%
130Boston UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island82%
131University of VermontNortheastern University42%upset
132Roger Williams UniversityYale University55%
133Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island67%
134Tufts UniversityBoston University66%
135Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Vermont18%upset
136Yale UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island66%
237Boston UniversityBrown University69%
238Brown UniversityUniversity of Vermont76%
239Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont78%
340Roger Williams UniversityTufts University19%upset
341Boston UniversityYale University73%
342Yale UniversityRoger Williams University45%upset
343Tufts UniversityBoston University66%
344Yale UniversityTufts University18%upset
345Roger Williams UniversityBoston University31%upset
446Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island68%
447University of VermontMassachusetts Institute of Technology82%
448Brown UniversityNortheastern University72%
449University of VermontUniversity of Rhode Island40%upset
450Northeastern UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology77%
451Brown UniversityUniversity of Vermont76%
452Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Rhode Island13%upset
453University of VermontNortheastern University44%upset
454Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology93%
455University of Rhode IslandNortheastern University54%

Round 1

TeamRec.BulldogsJumbosHawksTerriersBearsCatamountsEngineersRamsHuskies
Yale University Bulldogs6–2✕LLWWWWWW
Tufts University Jumbos7–1W✕WWWLWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks6–2WL✕WLWWWW
Boston University Terriers4–4LLL✕WWLWW
Brown University Bears4–4LLWL✕LWWW
University of Vermont Catamounts4–4LWLLW✕LWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–6LLLWLW✕LL
University of Rhode Island Rams2–6LLLLLLW✕W
Northeastern University Huskies1–7LLLLLLWL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.TerriersBearsCatamounts
Boston University Terriers2–0✕WW
Brown University Bears1–1L✕W
University of Vermont Catamounts0–2LL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BulldogsJumbosHawksTerriers
Yale University Bulldogs2–1✕WWL
Tufts University Jumbos1–2L✕LW
Roger Williams University Hawks2–1LW✕W
Boston University Terriers1–2WLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.BearsCatamountsEngineersRamsHuskies
Brown University Bears4–0✕WWWW
University of Vermont Catamounts3–1L✕WWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–3LL✕WL
University of Rhode Island Rams1–3LLL✕W
Northeastern University Huskies1–3LLWL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 4-5-6
2 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
4 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
5 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
6 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-4-6 DSQ
7 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
8 University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 DSQ
9 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
10 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
11 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
12 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
13 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
14 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-4-6
15 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
16 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
17 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-4-5
18 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
19 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
20 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
21 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
22 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-6
23 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 1-5-6
24 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 1-4-6
25 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
26 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-5-6
27 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
28 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
29 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
30 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-6
31 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
32 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-4-6
33 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-5-6
34 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
35 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
36 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
37 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
38 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-6
39 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
40 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-5
41 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
42 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
43 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 1-5-6
44 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
45 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
46 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-5-6
47 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
48 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
49 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
50 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
51 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
52 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
53 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
54 Brown University Bears 2-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-6
55 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6

Conditions — 04/06/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From W (277°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1019.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →