Northeastern University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.81 (fleet 2.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–48 (19%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 3–16 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–9 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 4–23 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (59 matches) the record is 11–48 against 15.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.25 | 0.73 | 2–10 | 5.0 | −1.53 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 2019-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.15 | 3.18 | 1–6 | 0.4 | +1.03 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 1.93 | 2.16 | 4–9 | 3.4 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2017-04-08 | Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | skipper | 2.09 | -0.91 | 0–15 | 3.8 | ≤−3.00 | 6.0 | >99% |
| 2017-04-02 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | 2.59 | 4–8 | 2.6 | +0.90 | 1.0 | 21% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
