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Midweek Fly, Bobby Berliner Trophy

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 12 12
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 13 13
3 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 15 15
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 20 20
5 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 30 30
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 2 1 4 3 1 1 12 Zachary Bresnick '21
Jon Ewing '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 13 Joseph Chamberlin '19
Brooke Mcgoldrick '20
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 4 3 2 1 3 2 15 Carolyn Corbet '21
Julianne Mozzer '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 3 4 1 4 4 4 20 James Peraire-Bueno '19
Noa Yoder '19
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 5 5 5 5 5 5 30 Nicole Owens '19
Alyson Schwerdtfeger '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons444444
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1131313131313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2101010101010
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 1111111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 2222222

Conditions — 04/13/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1024.4 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From NW (305°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1024.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.53)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →