Northeastern University '21
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 78.87 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 23 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.98 (fleet 2.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–63 (21%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 6–29 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 7–26 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (80 matches) the record is 17–63 against 14.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.49 | 2.85 | 4–16 | 3.2 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 1.88 | 1–8 | 1.6 | −0.60 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.49 | 0.97 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.52 | 1.4 | 98% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2–11 | 3.0 | −0.52 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 1.76 | 3.44 | 5–15 | 1.4 | +1.68 | 5.1 | 1% |
| 2017-04-02 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 1.47 | 2.37 | 4–8 | 2.6 | +0.90 | 1.0 | 21% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.9 | 2.40 |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.8 | 2.84 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.7 | 3.01 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.9 | 2.67 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.7 | 2.70 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 14.9 | 2.13 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 12.4 | 2.46 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| ODU Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.6 | 2.84 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.2 | 2.03 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.0 | 2.54 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.5 | 3.42 |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.3 | 0.48 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.6 | 2.66 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.9 | 2.61 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.3 | 2.36 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.4 | 3.07 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.3 | 2.40 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.2 | 2.42 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 7.0 | 3.75 |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 15.0 | 1.70 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.0 | 2.60 |
| Tyrell Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.2 | 1.26 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 3.42 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.8 | 1.82 |
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 25% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 15% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.9 | 2.00 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.5 | -1.52 |
| Midweek Fly, Bobby Berliner Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 2.10 |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 16.5 | 1.14 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Noringer | Crew | A | 6 | 7.3 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 14 | 9.8 | 1.21 |
| Central Series 3 | Crew | B | 17 | 1.9 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
