MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta

HostMIT
Date03/10/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tufts University	Jumbos	17–3
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	14–6
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–7
4	University of Rhode Island	Rams	10–10
5	Northeastern University	Huskies	5–15
6	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	1–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,751 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 49 of 60 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.519 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.29 ± 0.23: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 19% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tufts University Jumbos	1	8.63 school +0.10	Christopher Keller / Michelle Chisdak 2.78 Jackson Mccoy / Emily Calandrella 3.16 Samuel Shea / Juliana Testa 2.50	83%	17–3 (85%)	+0.5
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4	7.10 school +0.08, home +0.39	Ivan Shestopalov / Fiona Mckellar James Peraire-Bueno / Elizabeth Obermaier Connor Chung / Abigail Lee 2.18	52%	14–6 (70%)	+3.7
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	8.33 school +0.17	Preston Duclos / Kylie Freitas 2.56 Peter Neal / Hallie Repeta 2.79 Spencer Cartwright / Emily Gildea 2.65	77%	13–7 (65%)	−2.4
4	University of Rhode Island Rams	3	7.08 school −0.21	Patrick Isherwood / Jack Hurley 2.80 Matthew Gibbs / Edward Gary 2.38 Michael O'Flaherty / Ryan Geib	52%	10–10 (50%)	−0.3
5	Northeastern University Huskies	6	4.46 school −0.19	Carolyn Corbet / Julia Boll 1.76 John Hughes / Liz Silva Caleb Niles / Marika Van Dusen	7%	5–15 (25%)	+3.6
6	Salve Regina University Seahawks	5	6.07 school −0.29	Jennifer Killian / Madeline Lark 2.17 Sean Beaulieu / Jennifer Ryan 2.42 Grace Vincens / Grace Benzal	30%	1–19 (5%)	−5.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Northeastern University	4.46	6.14	5–15	1.4	+1.68	5.1	1%
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	7.10	8.23	14–6	10.3	+1.12	3.0	4%
1	Tufts University	8.63	8.83	17–3	16.5	+0.20	0.1	53%
4	University of Rhode Island	7.08	6.99	10–10	10.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
3	Roger Williams University	8.33	7.56	13–7	15.4	−0.77	1.4	96%
6	Salve Regina University	6.07	3.12	1–19	6.1	−2.96	8.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Carolyn Corbet	Northeastern University	1.76	3.44	5–15	1.4	+1.68	5.1	1%
John Hughes	Northeastern University	0.65	2.33	5–15	1.4	+1.68	5.1	1%
Ivan Shestopalov	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.36	3.49	14–6	10.3	+1.12	3.0	4%
James Peraire-Bueno	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	1.48	2.61	14–6	10.3	+1.12	3.0	4%
Christopher Keller	Tufts University	2.78	2.99	17–3	16.5	+0.20	0.1	53%
Samuel Shea	Tufts University	2.50	2.70	17–3	16.5	+0.20	0.1	53%
Patrick Isherwood	University of Rhode Island	2.80	2.70	10–10	10.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
Matthew Gibbs	University of Rhode Island	2.38	2.28	10–10	10.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
Michael O'Flaherty	University of Rhode Island	1.79	1.70	10–10	10.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	2.65	1.88	13–7	15.4	−0.77	1.4	96%
Jennifer Killian	Salve Regina University	2.17	-0.78	1–19	6.1	−2.96	8.9	>99%
Sean Beaulieu	Salve Regina University	2.42	-0.53	1–19	6.1	−2.96	8.9	>99%
Grace Vincens	Salve Regina University	1.48	-1.47	1–19	6.1	−2.96	8.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University	Salve Regina University	92%
1	2	Tufts University	Northeastern University	99%
1	3	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	57%
1	4	Roger Williams University	Northeastern University	98%
1	5	University of Rhode Island	Salve Regina University	73%
1	6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	13%	upset
1	7	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	94%
1	8	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	58%
1	9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Salve Regina University	71%
1	10	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	83%
1	11	Northeastern University	Salve Regina University	15%	upset
1	12	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
1	13	Tufts University	Salve Regina University	93%
1	14	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	78%
1	15	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Northeastern University	93%
2	16	Roger Williams University	Salve Regina University	91%
2	17	Tufts University	Northeastern University	99%
2	18	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	51%
2	19	Tufts University	Salve Regina University	93%
2	20	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	78%
2	21	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	93%
2	22	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	82%
2	23	Northeastern University	Salve Regina University	17%	upset
2	24	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	78%
2	25	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Northeastern University	93%
2	26	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	57%
2	27	University of Rhode Island	Salve Regina University	73%
2	28	Roger Williams University	Northeastern University	98%
2	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Salve Regina University	74%
2	30	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	82%
3	31	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	51%
3	32	Roger Williams University	Salve Regina University	90%
3	33	Tufts University	Northeastern University	98%
3	34	Salve Regina University	University of Rhode Island	27%	upset
3	35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	19%	upset
3	36	Northeastern University	Roger Williams University	2%	upset
3	37	Tufts University	Salve Regina University	93%
3	38	University of Rhode Island	Roger Williams University	23%	upset
3	39	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Northeastern University	93%
3	40	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	57%
3	41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Salve Regina University	75%
3	42	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	93%
3	43	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	75%
3	44	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	82%
3	45	Northeastern University	Salve Regina University	18%	upset
4	46	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	53%
4	47	Roger Williams University	Northeastern University	98%
4	48	Tufts University	Salve Regina University	92%
4	49	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	77%
4	50	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Salve Regina University	76%
4	51	Tufts University	Northeastern University	98%
4	52	Roger Williams University	Salve Regina University	90%
4	53	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	93%
4	54	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	21%	upset
4	55	Northeastern University	Salve Regina University	18%	upset
4	56	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	26%	upset
4	57	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	81%
4	58	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Northeastern University	93%
4	59	University of Rhode Island	Salve Regina University	74%
4	60	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	57%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Engineers	Hawks	Rams	Huskies	Seahawks
Tufts University Jumbos	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–2	W	✕	L	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Engineers	Hawks	Rams	Huskies	Seahawks
Tufts University Jumbos	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Engineers	Hawks	Rams	Huskies	Seahawks
Tufts University Jumbos	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L
Northeastern University Huskies	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Engineers	Hawks	Rams	Huskies	Seahawks
Tufts University Jumbos	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
2	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
3	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
4	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
5	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
6	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
7	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
8	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
9	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
10	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
11	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
12	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
13	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
14	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
15	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
16	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
17	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
18	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6 DNF
19	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
20	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
21	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
22	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
23	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
24	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
25	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
26	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
27	Rams	1-2-3 DNS,DNS	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
28	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
29	Engineers	1-2-6 DNS	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5 DNS
30	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
31	Engineers	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Rams	3-4-5
32	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6 DNS
33	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Huskies	2-4-5
34	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
35	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
36	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
37	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
38	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
39	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Huskies	2-4-6
40	Jumbos	1-5-6	def.	Hawks	2-3-4 DSQ
41	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
42	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
43	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
44	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
45	Huskies	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
46	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
47	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
48	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
49	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
50	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
51	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
52	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
53	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
54	Engineers	2-3-6	def.	Jumbos	1-4-5 DSQ
55	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
56	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
57	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
58	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
59	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
60	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tufts University	Jumbos	Christopher Keller '19 Jackson Mccoy '19 Samuel Shea '19	Michelle Chisdak '18 Emily Calandrella '20 Juliana Testa '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Connor Chung '20 Ivan Shestopalov '21 James Peraire-Bueno '19	Abigail Lee '20 Fiona Mckellar '20 Elizabeth Obermaier '21
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Peter Neal '20 Preston Duclos '19 Spencer Cartwright '22	Hallie Repeta '19 Kylie Freitas '20 Emily Gildea '21
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Matthew Gibbs '17 Michael O'Flaherty '21 Patrick Isherwood '17	Edward Gary '22 Ryan Geib '19 Jack Hurley '18
Northeastern University	Huskies	Caleb Niles '22 Carolyn Corbet '21 John Hughes '18	Marika Van Dusen '21 Julia Boll '21 Liz Silva '21
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	Grace Vincens '20 Jennifer Killian '19 Sean Beaulieu '18	Grace Benzal '21 Madeline Lark '20 Jennifer Ryan '19

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1007.3 hPa

Temperature

35°F

↑ 38°F ↓ 28°F

Feels like 25°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.6 kn

avg · max 13.5 kn

Gusts to 24.1 kn

From W (276°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover56% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1007.3 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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