Salve Regina University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (fleet 2.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–92 (9%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 6–14 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 1–48 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 2–30 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (101 matches) the record is 9–92 against 12.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.38 | 3.66 | 6–14 | 3.2 | +1.29 | 2.9 | 4% |
| 2019-03-23 | Staake Team Race NE Qualifier | skipper | 2.34 | 2.34 | 1–19 | 1.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2019-03-09 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 2.26 | -0.74 | 0–14 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | skipper | 2.16 | -0.84 | 0–15 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 1.71 | 2.11 | 1–11 | 0.7 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 1.48 | -1.47 | 1–19 | 6.1 | −2.96 | 8.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 3.05 |
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 36% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 2.73 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.1 | 1.95 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.5 | 2.96 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.5 | 2.97 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 16.7 | 1.51 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 16 | 14.5 | 1.86 |
| Fairfield Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.1 | 2.87 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Team Race NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 20 | 5% | — |
| Salve Sunday 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.7 | 3.33 |
| Salve Saturday Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.4 | 1.62 |
| Salve Alymers | Skipper | A | 20 | 4.6 | 2.00 |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.9 | 2.65 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.1 | 2.71 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.2 | 2.61 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 15.3 | 1.63 |
| Frank I Mendelblatt | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.1 | 2.19 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.5 | 2.04 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 13.6 | 2.22 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 10.9 | 2.25 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.8 | 2.55 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Regatta | Skipper | B | 16 | 11.8 | 2.36 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.4 | 3.10 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 2.63 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 at URI | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.6 | -0.42 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 14.3 | -0.71 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.3 | 1.68 |
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 5% | — |
| Central Series #1 | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.3 | 0.04 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.2 | 1.70 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.5 | 1.53 |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.5 | 1.83 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.7 | 2.02 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.4 | 1.39 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.2 | 0.24 |
| Alymers | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.7 | 1.10 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 7.8 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 2 | 17.0 | — |
| Professor Noringer | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.00 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.4 | 0.15 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 14.2 | -0.37 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
