2017 Victorian Urn Trophy

Women's
HostHarvard
Date10/28/2017
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	69	53	122
2	Boston College	Eagles	92	85	177
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	61	160	221
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	117	106	223
5	Brown University	Bears	136	97	233
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	123	113	236
7	Connecticut College	Camels	118	130	248
8	Northeastern University	Huskies	164	84	248
9	Boston University	Terriers	143	110	253
10	Harvard University	Crimson	119	141	260
11	University of Rhode Island	Rams	115	156	271
12	University of Vermont	Catamounts	146	153	299
13	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	169	166	335
14	Tufts University	Jumbos	179	170	349
15	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	207	225	432
16	Roger Williams University	Hawks	218	225	443

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT	Sailors
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	2	7	1	1	11	9	2	2	9	1	2	8	1	1	2	2	61	Dana Rohde '18 Maddie Ekin '20
Yale University	Bulldogs	5	5	11	3	1	3	1	11	4	4	1	1	7	7	4	1	69	Casey Klingler '18 Claudia Loiacono '21
Boston College	Eagles	10	4	5	6	7	1	10	7	3	3	5	3	6	3	5	14	92	Isabella Loosbrock '19 Emma Perry '19
University of Rhode Island	Rams	6	2	4	7	10	11	8	1	10	14	12	4	4	6	12	4	115	Sarah Hermus '18 Hannah Scanlon '18
Dartmouth College	Big Green	8	11	2	14	5	2	6	3	5	9	3	15	9	2	10	13	117	Emma White '19 Peninah Benjamin '20
Connecticut College	Camels	1	6	6	BKD	13	13	9	5	1	7	6	10	3	10	11	10	118	Charlotte List '18 Gwynie Dunlevy '20
Harvard University	Crimson	9	1	7	5	3	14	4	6	16	8	15	2	12	11	1	5	119	Taylor Ladd '18 Kirstin Anderson '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	13	10	9	2	2	4	16	10	12	5	8	5	2	8	6	11	123	Annie Hughes '19 [1-16] Tiffany Xi '19 [1-8, 10-16] Brooke Mcgoldrick '20 [9]
Brown University	Bears	3	13	DSQ	4	4	6	3	12	2	15	7	9	15	9	8	9	136	Ragna Agerup '20 Emily Ito '19
Boston University	Terriers	7	16	3	9	15	7	12	13	6	2	4	11	8	13	9	8	143	Maia Agerup '20 Caroline Salas '18
University of Vermont	Catamounts	11	15	12	10	6	5	5	9	15	12	11	14	11	4	3	3	146	Lindsay Doyle '18 Lilla Salvesen '18
Northeastern University	Huskies	4	9	8	11	14	10	14	16	7	10	13	16	5	5	16	6	164	Camille Matile '17 Eleanor Grams '18
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	15	8	13	15	8	12	11	4	11	13	10	6	10	12	14	7	169	Catherine Price '18 Caitlin Tardio '19
Tufts University	Jumbos	12	3	10	13	12	8	13	14	14	6	14	7	16	15	7	15	179	Molly Pleskus '18 [1-16] Taylor Hart '19 [1-14] Sabina Van Mell '19 [15-16]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	16	12	14	12	9	16	15	8	8	11	16	13	14	14	13	16	207	Bridget Lawless '21 [1-16] Michelle Frias '21 [1-4, 7-8, 11-14] Alexa Percell '20 [5-6, 9-10, 15-16]
Roger Williams University	Hawks	14	14	15	16	16	15	7	15	13	16	9	12	13	16	15	12	218	Janel Decurtis '18 Ariana Smaldone '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT	Sailors
Yale University	Bulldogs	2	4	1	1	3	3	1	10	3	3	6	1	1	1	1	12	53	Louisa Nordstrom '20 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18
Northeastern University	Huskies	1	1	6	9	6	1	2	6	1	2	14	4	3	14	13	1	84	Sarah De Silva '19 Katherine Alfond '19
Boston College	Eagles	4	6	13	3	1	6	7	12	4	4	2	3	4	9	5	2	85	Sophia Reineke '21 Lily Mcgrath '18
Brown University	Bears	10	2	8	8	2	2	3	13	11	1	15	11	2	2	2	5	97	Hannah Steadman '20 Annabelle Hutchinson '21
Dartmouth College	Big Green	11	5	4	7	4	7	14	1	6	5	1	2	7	13	8	11	106	Audrey Giblin '20 Sophia Diserio '18
Boston University	Terriers	5	12	5	2	8	4	5	4	2	7	5	15	11	6	10	9	110	Grace Mooradian '21 Meredith Harrington '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	12	7	2	15	11	5	11	3	RDG	10	3	6	10	4	3	4	113	Greta Farrell '18 Sarah Caso '19
Connecticut College	Camels	8	10	3	14	7	11	10	7	5	6	4	5	12	7	15	6	130	Alexandra Maurillo '18 Paige Dunlevy '20
Harvard University	Crimson	3	8	9	6	5	13	9	15	14	11	10	8	14	3	6	7	141	Taylor Gavula '19 [1-10] Lucy Wilmot '20 [11-16] Tess Avery '21 [1-10] Alejandra Resendiz '19 [11-16]
University of Vermont	Catamounts	9	11	7	13	9	10	13	5	7	12	13	13	6	11	11	3	153	Annie Spence '20 Emma Janson '19
University of Rhode Island	Rams	13	14	10	4	10	12	6	9	10	9	9	7	8	8	14	13	156	Delaney Bamford '20 [1-16] Sarah Morin '18 [1-2] Cecilia Schneider '20 [3-16]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	14	3	14	5	13	16	8	2	13	13	12	9	9	10	9	10	160	Madelynn Widmeier '19 Anna Morin '19
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6	9	15	11	14	14	4	8	16	16	8	10	5	15	7	8	166	Claire Havig '21 Nora Cullen '18
Tufts University	Jumbos	7	15	12	10	15	8	12	11	15	8	7	12	15	5	4	14	170	Talia Toland '22 [1-8, 11-16] Leyla Senocak '21 [9-10] Lucy Robison '18 [1-8, 11-16] Sabina Van Mell '19 [9-10]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	15	16	16	12	12	15	15	16	12	14	11	14	13	12	16	16	225	Grace Vincens '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-14] Lucie Ford '20 [3-4, 7-8, 15-16] Allison Gilson '21 [1-2, 5-10] Alexa Percell '20 [3-4] Mary Grace Bean '18 [11-16]
Roger Williams University	Hawks	16	13	11	16	16	9	16	14	8	15	16	16	16	16	12	15	225	Rachel Holick '22 Kristi Dolan '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (43 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A	16A
Boston College Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Boston University Terriers	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Brown University Bears	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Connecticut College Camels	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Dartmouth College Big Green	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1
Northeastern University Huskies	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
University of Rhode Island Rams	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
Roger Williams University Hawks	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
Salve Regina University Seahawks	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
University of Vermont Catamounts	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Yale University Bulldogs	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B	15B	16B
Boston College Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Boston University Terriers	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Brown University Bears	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Connecticut College Camels	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Dartmouth College Big Green	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1
Northeastern University Huskies	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
University of Rhode Island Rams	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
Roger Williams University Hawks	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
Salve Regina University Seahawks	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
University of Vermont Catamounts	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Yale University Bulldogs	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Isabella Loosbrock '19	Emma Perry '19
Eagles	Sophia Reineke '21	Lily Mcgrath '18
Boston University	Maia Agerup '20	Caroline Salas '18
Terriers	Grace Mooradian '21	Meredith Harrington '18
Bowdoin College	Catherine Price '18	Caitlin Tardio '19
Polar Bears	Claire Havig '21	Nora Cullen '18
Brown University	Ragna Agerup '20	Emily Ito '19
Bears	Hannah Steadman '20	Annabelle Hutchinson '21
Connecticut College	Charlotte List '18	Gwynie Dunlevy '20
Camels	Alexandra Maurillo '18	Paige Dunlevy '20
Dartmouth College	Emma White '19	Peninah Benjamin '20
Big Green	Audrey Giblin '20	Sophia Diserio '18
Harvard University	Taylor Ladd '18	Kirstin Anderson '18
Crimson	Taylor Gavula '19 [1-10] Lucy Wilmot '20 [11-16]	Tess Avery '21 [1-10] Alejandra Resendiz '19 [11-16]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Annie Hughes '19 [1-16]	Tiffany Xi '19 [1-8, 10-16] Brooke Mcgoldrick '20 [9]
Engineers	Greta Farrell '18	Sarah Caso '19
Northeastern University	Camille Matile '17	Eleanor Grams '18
Huskies	Sarah De Silva '19	Katherine Alfond '19
Roger Williams University	Janel Decurtis '18	Ariana Smaldone '20
Hawks	Rachel Holick '22	Kristi Dolan '20
Salve Regina University	Bridget Lawless '21 [1-16]	Michelle Frias '21 [1-4, 7-8, 11-14] Alexa Percell '20 [5-6, 9-10, 15-16]
Seahawks	Grace Vincens '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-14] Lucie Ford '20 [3-4, 7-8, 15-16]	Allison Gilson '21 [1-2, 5-10] Alexa Percell '20 [3-4] Mary Grace Bean '18 [11-16]
Tufts University	Molly Pleskus '18 [1-16]	Taylor Hart '19 [1-14] Sabina Van Mell '19 [15-16]
Jumbos	Talia Toland '22 [1-8, 11-16] Leyla Senocak '21 [9-10]	Lucy Robison '18 [1-8, 11-16] Sabina Van Mell '19 [9-10]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dana Rohde '18	Maddie Ekin '20
Bears	Madelynn Widmeier '19	Anna Morin '19
University of Rhode Island	Sarah Hermus '18	Hannah Scanlon '18
Rams	Delaney Bamford '20 [1-16]	Sarah Morin '18 [1-2] Cecilia Schneider '20 [3-16]
University of Vermont	Lindsay Doyle '18	Lilla Salvesen '18
Catamounts	Annie Spence '20	Emma Janson '19
Yale University	Casey Klingler '18	Claudia Loiacono '21
Bulldogs	Louisa Nordstrom '20	Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18

Conditions — 10/28/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1017.2 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 47°F

Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.0 kn

avg · max 10.7 kn

Gusts to 19.2 kn

From S (186°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1017.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 11 kn* · E 5 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.09

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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