University of Vermont '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 46.06 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.076 rating points from 528 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–6 (0%) as crew 9–26 (26%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 0–4 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 1–11 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–6 | 0–1 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 8–10 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 9–31 against 10.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | Staake Team Race | crew | 2.08 | -0.92 | 0–4 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 2.96 | 1.57 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.39 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 1.40 | -1.60 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | crew | 2.65 | 3.22 | 8–10 | 6.0 | +0.57 | 0.8 | 20% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 7.9 | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | A | 3 | 8.0 | — |
| Staake Team Race | Crew | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 4.7 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 9.7 | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Crew | B | 13 | 12.1 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 10.2 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 11 | 5.5 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 7.3 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 11.0 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 6.2 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 10 | 8.5 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 3.6 | — |
| 75th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 5.4 | — |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 9.1 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 5.0 | — |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 10.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A, C | 12 | 3.8 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 11.7 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 9.2 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 7.7 | — |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 9.5 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 8.3 | — |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 7.9 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 8.3 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 7.6 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 5.9 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 10.9 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 6.6 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 5.0 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 3.8 | — |
| Southern Series 7 | Crew | B | 16 | 12.1 | — |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 5.2 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 7.9 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Crew | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 6.0 | — |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 7.5 | — |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 12.5 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 6.9 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 7 | 11.1 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 10.2 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Crew | B | 12 | 4.0 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | A | 5 | 11.8 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 6.5 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 7.4 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 9.9 | — |
| Duplin Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 11.0 | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 10.1 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 9.3 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 9.0 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 4.3 | — |
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | B | 12 | 4.2 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A, B | 15 | 8.9 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | A | 15 | 7.9 | — |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 6.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
