Duplin

HostTufts
Date03/28/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–0
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–4
3	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	12–6
4	Brown University	Bears	11–7
5	University of Vermont	Catamounts	8–10
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	6–12
7	University of South Florida	Bulls	6–12
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–12
9	Boston College	Eagles	6–12
10	University of Rhode Island	Rams	3–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,801 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 65 of 90 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.590 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.17 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 26% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	9.97 school +0.39	Julia Lambert / Yuki Yoshiyasu 2.93 Lily Katz / Sarah Placek 3.37 Maeve White / Sarah Lucas 3.07	81%	18–0 (100%)	+3.4
2	Yale University Bulldogs	7	8.39	Marly Isler / Natalya Doris 3.01 Casey Klingler / Isabelle Rossi De Leon Katharina (Kb) Knapp / Claire Huebner	46%	14–4 (78%)	+5.7
3	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	8.86 school +0.36	Erin Mullins / Emily Kushner Salitan 3.02 Lizzy Hamilton / Catherine Price 2.49 Courtney Koos / Sydney Avitia-Jacques 2.35	58%	12–6 (67%)	+1.5
4	Brown University Bears	2	9.70 school +0.37	Johanna Kincaid / Jessica O'Dell 3.32 Kelly Mcglynn / Courtney Bergh 2.50 11–5 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick / Alexandra Swanson 3.22 10–6 Lindsey Baab / Olivia Lord 0–2 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick / Katherine Sudol 3.33 1–1	76%	11–7 (61%)	−2.7
5	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	7.73 school −0.14	Megan Yeigh / Lilla Salvesen 2.65 Amina Brown / Lauren Jones Lindsay Doyle / Brittney Manning	33%	8–10 (44%)	+2.0
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4	8.81	Chloe Lepert / Samantha Albright 2.87 Laura Dunphy / Jamila Smith-Dell 2.54 Rosalind Lesh / Jorlyn Le Garrec	57%	6–12 (33%)	−4.3
7	University of South Florida Bulls	5	8.62	Dominique Wright / Darcy Jensen 3.13 Alison Knoles / Kristen Walker 2.84 Madison Gates / Kayla Burrows	53%	6–12 (33%)	−3.5
8	Tufts University Jumbos	6	8.55 school +0.17, home +0.25	Maryclaire Kiernan / Amanda Sommi Kate Levinson / Emily Lynn 2.57 Kate Shaner / Julia Fuller 2.59	50%	6–12 (33%)	−3.1
9	Boston College Eagles	9	7.55 school +0.08	Fiona Walsh / Kyla Maclennan Allyson Donahue / Madeleine Loosbrock 3.00 6–10 Katja Sertl / Lindsay D'Alessandro 2.06 6–10 Allyson Donahue / Katherine Downey 3.44 0–2 Katja Sertl / Lily Mcgrath 2.37 0–2	29%	6–12 (33%)	+0.8
10	University of Rhode Island Rams	10	6.79 school +0.29	Mackenzie Needham / Nellie Hamilton Sarah Hermus / Sarah Leonard Lucy Clara Jones / Marisa Decollibus	16%	3–15 (17%)	+0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	9.97	12.97	18–0	14.6	≥+3.00	5.4	2%
2	Yale University	8.39	10.02	14–4	8.3	+1.63	6.4	<1%
5	University of Vermont	7.73	8.30	8–10	6.0	+0.57	0.8	20%
3	Bowdoin College	8.86	9.28	12–6	10.5	+0.42	0.4	31%
9	Boston College	7.55	7.79	6–12	5.2	+0.24	0.1	42%
10	University of Rhode Island	6.79	6.87	3–15	2.8	+0.08	0.0	56%
4	Brown University	9.70	8.91	11–7	13.7	−0.79	1.6	96%
8	Tufts University	8.55	7.70	6–12	9.1	−0.85	1.9	97%
7	University of South Florida	8.62	7.66	6–12	9.5	−0.97	2.4	98%
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.81	7.61	6–12	10.3	−1.20	3.7	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Julia Lambert	Stanford University	2.93	5.93	18–0	14.6	≥+3.00	5.4	2%
Lily Katz	Stanford University	3.37	6.37	18–0	14.6	≥+3.00	5.4	2%
Maeve White	Stanford University	3.07	6.07	18–0	14.6	≥+3.00	5.4	2%
Marly Isler	Yale University	3.01	4.64	14–4	8.3	+1.63	6.4	<1%
Katharina (Kb) Knapp	Yale University	1.98	3.61	14–4	8.3	+1.63	6.4	<1%
Megan Yeigh	University of Vermont	2.65	3.22	8–10	6.0	+0.57	0.8	20%
Amina Brown	University of Vermont	2.84	3.41	8–10	6.0	+0.57	0.8	20%
Lindsay Doyle	University of Vermont	1.88	2.45	8–10	6.0	+0.57	0.8	20%
Erin Mullins	Bowdoin College	3.02	3.45	12–6	10.5	+0.42	0.4	31%
Lizzy Hamilton	Bowdoin College	2.49	2.91	12–6	10.5	+0.42	0.4	31%
Courtney Koos	Bowdoin College	2.35	2.77	12–6	10.5	+0.42	0.4	31%
Allyson Donahue	Boston College	3.00	3.24	6–12	5.2	+0.24	0.1	42%
Katja Sertl	Boston College	2.06	2.30	6–12	5.2	+0.24	0.1	42%
Fiona Walsh	Boston College	1.77	2.01	6–12	5.2	+0.24	0.1	42%
Sarah Hermus	University of Rhode Island	2.06	2.14	3–15	2.8	+0.08	0.0	56%
Kelly Mcglynn	Brown University	2.50	2.10	11–5	12.1	−0.40	0.3	85%
Johanna Kincaid	Brown University	3.32	2.52	11–7	13.7	−0.79	1.6	96%
Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick	Brown University	3.22	2.43	11–7	13.7	−0.79	1.6	96%
Maryclaire Kiernan	Tufts University	2.70	1.85	6–12	9.1	−0.85	1.9	97%
Kate Levinson	Tufts University	2.57	1.72	6–12	9.1	−0.85	1.9	97%
Kate Shaner	Tufts University	2.59	1.74	6–12	9.1	−0.85	1.9	97%
Dominique Wright	University of South Florida	3.13	2.16	6–12	9.5	−0.97	2.4	98%
Alison Knoles	University of South Florida	2.84	1.88	6–12	9.5	−0.97	2.4	98%
Madison Gates	University of South Florida	2.46	1.49	6–12	9.5	−0.97	2.4	98%
Chloe Lepert	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.87	1.66	6–12	10.3	−1.20	3.7	99%
Laura Dunphy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.54	1.34	6–12	10.3	−1.20	3.7	99%
Rosalind Lesh	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.04	1.84	6–12	10.3	−1.20	3.7	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Tufts University	81%
1	2	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	7%	upset
1	3	Brown University	University of South Florida	73%
1	4	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	73%
1	5	Yale University	Boston College	55%
1	6	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	78%
1	7	Tufts University	Brown University	21%	upset
1	8	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	90%
1	9	Yale University	University of South Florida	39%	upset
1	10	University of Vermont	Boston College	60%
1	11	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
1	12	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	78%
1	13	Yale University	Tufts University	43%	upset
1	14	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	75%
1	15	Boston College	University of South Florida	21%	upset
1	16	Bowdoin College	Brown University	27%	upset
1	17	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	39%	upset
1	18	Stanford University	University of Vermont	91%
1	19	University of South Florida	Tufts University	53%
1	20	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	68%
1	21	Yale University	Bowdoin College	39%	upset
1	22	Brown University	University of Vermont	88%
1	23	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of South Florida	54%
1	24	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	96%
1	25	Tufts University	Boston College	75%
1	26	University of Vermont	Yale University	34%	upset
1	27	Bowdoin College	University of South Florida	55%
1	28	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	5%	upset
1	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	56%
1	30	Stanford University	Boston College	92%
1	31	University of Vermont	University of South Florida	29%	upset
1	32	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	83%
1	33	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	58%
1	34	Stanford University	Brown University	57%
1	35	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	21%	upset
1	36	University of Rhode Island	University of South Florida	14%	upset
1	37	University of Vermont	Tufts University	31%	upset
1	38	Stanford University	Yale University	83%
1	39	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	52%
1	40	Brown University	Boston College	90%
1	41	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	84%
1	42	Stanford University	University of South Florida	79%
1	43	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	26%	upset
1	44	Brown University	Yale University	78%
1	45	Bowdoin College	Boston College	79%
2	46	Stanford University	Tufts University	80%
2	47	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	87%
2	48	Brown University	University of South Florida	75%
2	49	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	76%
2	50	Yale University	Boston College	63%
2	51	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
2	52	Tufts University	Brown University	24%	upset
2	53	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	88%
2	54	Yale University	University of South Florida	46%	upset
2	55	Boston College	University of Vermont	45%	upset
2	56	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
2	57	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	74%
2	58	Yale University	Tufts University	48%	upset
2	59	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	70%
2	60	University of South Florida	Boston College	74%
2	61	Brown University	Bowdoin College	69%
2	62	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	41%	upset
2	63	Stanford University	University of Vermont	90%
2	64	University of South Florida	Tufts University	51%
2	65	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	65%
2	66	Yale University	Bowdoin College	38%	upset
2	67	Brown University	University of Vermont	87%
2	68	University of South Florida	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset
2	69	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	95%
2	70	Tufts University	Boston College	72%
2	71	Yale University	University of Vermont	66%
2	72	Bowdoin College	University of South Florida	59%
2	73	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	94%
2	74	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	57%
2	75	Stanford University	Boston College	91%
2	76	University of South Florida	University of Vermont	69%
2	77	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	81%
2	78	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	60%
2	79	Stanford University	Brown University	57%
2	80	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	78%
2	81	University of South Florida	University of Rhode Island	83%
2	82	University of Vermont	Tufts University	32%	upset
2	83	Stanford University	Yale University	81%
2	84	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	53%
2	85	Brown University	Boston College	89%
2	86	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	82%
2	87	Stanford University	University of South Florida	80%
2	88	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	74%
2	89	Yale University	Brown University	23%	upset
2	90	Boston College	Bowdoin College	20%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Bears	Bears	Catamounts	Engineers	Bulls	Jumbos	Eagles	Rams
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	6–3	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–4	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	L
University of Vermont Catamounts	6–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L
University of South Florida Bulls	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	L
Tufts University Jumbos	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	W	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Bears	Bears	Catamounts	Engineers	Bulls	Jumbos	Eagles	Rams
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	8–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–4	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L	W
Brown University Bears	6–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	2–7	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W	L	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	5–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–6	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
2	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
3	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
4	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
7	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
8	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
9	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
10	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
11	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
12	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
13	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
14	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
15	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
16	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
18	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
19	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
20	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
22	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
23	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
24	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
25	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
26	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
27	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
28	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
29	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
30	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
31	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
32	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
33	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
34	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
36	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
37	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
38	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
39	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
40	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
41	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
42	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
43	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
44	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
45	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
46	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
47	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
48	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
49	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
50	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
51	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
52	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6 DSQ
53	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
54	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Bulls	2-3-6
55	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
56	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
57	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
59	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
60	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
61	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
62	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
63	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
64	Bulls	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
65	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
66	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
67	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
68	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
69	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
70	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
71	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
72	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
73	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
74	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
75	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
76	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
77	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
78	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
79	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
80	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
81	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
82	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
83	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
84	Polar Bears	2-4-6	def.	Engineers	1-3-5 DSQ
85	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
86	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
87	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
88	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
89	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
90	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Julia Lambert '18 Lily Katz '17 Maeve White '17	Yuki Yoshiyasu '16 Sarah Placek '18 Sarah Lucas '18
Yale University	Bulldogs	Casey Klingler '18 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 Marly Isler '16	Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17 Claire Huebner '18 Natalya Doris '17
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Courtney Koos '16 Erin Mullins '16 Lizzy Hamilton '15	Sydney Avitia-Jacques '18 Emily Kushner Salitan '16 Catherine Price '18
Brown University	Bears	Johanna Kincaid '15 Kelly Mcglynn '15 Lindsey Baab '18 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17	Jessica O'Dell '17 Courtney Bergh '16 Olivia Lord '17 Alexandra Swanson '16 Katherine Sudol '16
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Amina Brown '17 Lindsay Doyle '18 Megan Yeigh '16	Lauren Jones '15 Brittney Manning '18 Lilla Salvesen '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Chloe Lepert '15 Laura Dunphy '15 Rosalind Lesh '16	Samantha Albright '15 Jamila Smith-Dell '16 Jorlyn Le Garrec '17
University of South Florida	Bulls	Alison Knoles '17 Dominique Wright '15 Madison Gates '18	Kristen Walker '17 Darcy Jensen '16 Kayla Burrows '17
Tufts University	Jumbos	Kate Levinson '15 Kate Shaner '16 Maryclaire Kiernan '17	Emily Lynn '15 Julia Fuller '17 Amanda Sommi '16
Boston College	Eagles	Allyson Donahue '17 Fiona Walsh '17 Katja Sertl '16	Madeleine Loosbrock '17 Katherine Downey '16 Kyla Maclennan '18 Lindsay D'Alessandro '15 Lily Mcgrath '18
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Lucy Clara Jones '18 Mackenzie Needham '15 Sarah Hermus '18	Marisa Decollibus '17 Nellie Hamilton '16 Sarah Leonard '17

Conditions — 03/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌨️Moderate snow

Humidity 84% · Pressure 1008.5 hPa

Temperature

34°F

↑ 35°F ↓ 34°F

Feels like 25°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.5 kn

avg · max 13.8 kn

Gusts to 25.9 kn

From N (11°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1008.5 hPa Rain0.01 in Snow1.18 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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