Yale University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 38.38 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.081 rating points from 247 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.23 (fleet 3.08) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–11 (61%) as crew 37–22 (63%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 11–7 | 11–16 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 12–2 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 14–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (87 matches) the record is 54–33 against 51.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.58 | 2.54 | 11–7 | 11.2 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 3.27 | 2.80 | 9–4 | 10.0 | −0.47 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2018-03-10 | Rudkin Team Race | crew | 3.45 | 1.79 | 2–12 | 6.2 | −1.65 | 4.5 | >99% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 3.11 | 3.98 | 12–2 | 10.3 | +0.87 | 1.0 | 22% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.01 | 2.12 | 6–4 | 5.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | crew | 1.98 | 3.61 | 14–4 | 8.3 | +1.63 | 6.4 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 7.3 | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | C | 3 | 10.7 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 3.5 | — |
| Rudkin Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 6.9 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 4.8 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.2 | 3.09 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.5 | 2.55 |
| Mt. Hope Bay | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.4 | 3.73 |
| Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | B | 17 | 5.5 | — |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.0 | 3.29 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | C | 3 | 9.7 | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 7.5 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 2.8 | — |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 2.8 | — |
| Southern 5 | Crew | A | 9 | 7.3 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 7.5 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 4.5 | — |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 6.4 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 5.5 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 3.3 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 3.8 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.7 | 2.94 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 4.2 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 8.1 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 11.5 | — |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 5.5 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 4.3 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | A | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 6.1 | — |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 8.6 | — |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 7.5 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.7 | 2.28 |
| Southern 7 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 1.70 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.0 | 2.23 |
| Nevins Trophy | Crew | A | 6 | 7.7 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 10 | 9.2 | 1.71 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | B | 5 | 9.4 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 3.5 | — |
| Duplin Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 5.5 | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.5 | 1.98 |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 13 | 5.7 | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | A, B | 9 | 5.7 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.4 | 2.07 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 8.2 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 15 | 12.5 | 1.08 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.0 | 2.23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
