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Southern 7

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 48
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 60
3 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 63
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 64
5 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 68
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 79
7 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 85
8 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 85
9 Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 133
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels B 1 1 2 1 5 Hugh Macgillivray '18
Hannah King '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 2 3 6 2 13 Jack Bitney '19
Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs A 11 4 3 6 24 Claire Huebner '18
Claire Rossi De Leon '19
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 B OCS 2 1 4 26 Scott Booth '16
Brigette Croke '17
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 B 4 6 8 11 29 Ali Gowrie '17
Brian Firth '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 9 7 5 8 29 Julien Guiot '18
Taylor Fasolo '18
Brown University Brown University Bears A 6 12 4 10 32 Macklin Fluehr '17
Emily Haynes-Simmons '18
Brown University Brown University Bears B 5 10 14 3 32 Sophie Hibben '19
Maxine De Havenon '19
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 A 12 5 12 5 34 Preston Duclos '19
Virginia Yeatts '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 8 9 9 9 35 Tyler Paige '18
Sabina Van Mell '19
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 3 11 10 12 36 Karel Mailloux-Kuz '18
Ian Nannig '19
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs B 13 8 11 7 39 Charles Skoda '17
No Show
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 7 13 13 16 49 Kimberly Morecraft '18
Ellis Havelock '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 15 15 7 13 50 Pierre Dupont '16
Margaret Veltri '20
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 A 10 14 17 15 56 Henry Stames '18
Samuel Dorothy '19
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners A 14 16 15 17 62 No Show
Caroline Ziff '17
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels A 16 17 16 14 63 Phillip Rosenthall '18
Olivia Liebnick '16
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners B 17 18 18 18 71 No Show
Nicholas Kuehnle '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1122
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels2211
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners3344
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams8877
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 14433
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 25566
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 16655
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 27788
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs991010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears101099
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels11111212
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners12121111
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams17171818
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 113131414
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 214141313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 115151616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 216161515
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs18181717

Conditions — 10/24/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1029.0 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.8 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From E (92°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1029.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.29 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →