Brown University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.70 (fleet 3.74) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 54–40 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 27–2 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 5 | 25–37 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–0 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (91 matches) the record is 52–39 against 56.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 21 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 3.10 | 3.14 | 17–2 | 16.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 5.92 | 10–0 | 5.7 | ≥+3.00 | 8.5 | <1% |
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.31 | 2.35 | 11–7 | 10.8 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 2.64 | 6–5 | 5.0 | +0.39 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.38 | 1.08 | 4–12 | 7.8 | −1.30 | 3.5 | 99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 1.66 | 2–1 | 2.4 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 90% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.41 | 0.15 | 2–12 | 8.0 | −2.27 | 8.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 90% | — |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.6 | 4.32 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.7 | 3.60 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.9 | 4.13 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.6 | 4.36 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.7 | 3.15 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.6 | 4.44 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.2 | 3.21 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.6 | 4.58 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.4 | 2.39 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.4 | 3.12 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.5 | 1.54 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 2.80 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.3 | 1.31 |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.6 | 4.31 |
| Southern 5 | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.3 | 2.24 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 5.1 | 2.49 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.5 | 3.46 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.2 | 1.76 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | 2.78 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 3.44 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.8 | 1.95 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 3.41 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.6 | 3.49 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.9 | 2.36 |
| 74th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 4.6 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.4 | 2.06 |
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.3 | 1.37 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.1 | 3.19 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.0 | 2.25 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.0 | 1.80 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.7 | 2.91 |
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.2 | 2.73 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.1 | 1.77 |
| Southern 7 | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.0 | 1.05 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.3 | 1.75 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.7 | 1.69 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.7 | 2.69 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
