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Stu Nelson

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 41 30 71
2 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 28 51 79
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 62 23 85
4 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 41 50 91
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 58 43 101
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 52 84 136
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 59 82 141
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 89 53 142
9 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 82 67 149
10 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 78 87 165
11 Boston University Boston University Terriers 103 MRP 63 MRP 166 MRP
12 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 69 103 172
13 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 77 103 180
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 3 1 3 7 3 2 4 2 3 28 Alie Toppa '20
Annabel Carrington '19
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 3 2 5 6 4 1 7 12 41 Louisa Nordstrom '20
Claudia Loiacono '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 5 5 4 2 7 5 2 6 5 41 Delaney Bamford '20
Kathryn Nota '19
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 9 8 4 11 7 7 3 1 52 Marina Barzaghi '21
Darby Capellin '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 6 10 1 11 5 1 11 4 9 58 Taylor Gavula '19
Emily Wang '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 11 11 12 1 3 10 1 6 59 Dana Haig '22 [1-9]
Lulu Russell '22 [1-4]
Abigail Lee '20 [5-9]
Brown University Brown University Bears 10 7 5 8 2 8 3 8 11 62 Hannah Steadman '20
Emily Ito '19
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 12 4 6 10 12 6 8 9 2 69 Analucia Clarkson '22
Erin Smith '19
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 8 2 7 13 8 13 5 13 8 77 Ainsley Parramore '20
Delphine Carroll '19
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 7 8 10 1 10 11 9 12 10 78 Emma Marston '22
Helen Field '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 11 12 9 9 9 12 6 10 4 82 Darden Purrington '20
Halee Lewis '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 13 6 12 6 13 9 12 11 7 89 Abbie Carlson '22
Taylor Hart '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 9 13 13 3 4 10 13 5 13 103 MRP Grace Mooradian '21
Hannah Davis '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 7 2 4 1 4 1 1 2 23 Sophie Hibben '19
Megha Malpani '19
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 1 1 1 6 6 2 7 4 30 Christine Klingler '20
Kira Woods '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 2 7 12 3 1 5 8 1 43 Emma Kaneti '22
Emma Jakobson '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 7 8 3 7 2 2 10 2 9 50 Rebecca Read '21
Sage Walters '21
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 3 3 5 3 12 7 8 5 5 51 Liza Toppa '20 [1-8]
Elizabeth Mignon '19 [9]
Caroline Bracken '19 [1-8]
Liza Toppa '20 [9]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 10 4 6 5 4 9 3 6 6 53 Charlotte Lenz '20
Marley Hillman '21
Boston University Boston University Terriers 8 6 4 2 5 3 9 3 3 63 MRP Allison Cahn '20
Shannon Macdonald '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 11 5 9 8 10 8 4 4 8 67 Christina Nothacker '21
Anna Maria Vaccaro '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 11 12 11 7 5 12 9 10 82 Meredith Julian '21 [1-4, 9]
Lulu Russell '22 [5-8]
Isabelle Yen '21 [1-8]
Lulu Russell '22 [9]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 6 9 10 10 8 12 11 11 7 84 Kathryn Bornarth '21
Rachel Yannelli '19
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 9 12 8 6 9 11 7 13 12 87 Elizabeth Holiman '20
Kiley Roach '21
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 12 10 11 13 11 10 13 12 11 103 Margaret Maccormack '21 [1-4, 7-9]
Carla Szeplaki '20 [5-6]
Tatiana Chinitz '19 [1-4, 7-9]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 13 13 13 9 13 13 6 10 13 103 Alexandra Wagner '22 [1-9]
Molly Weiner '21 [1-6, 9]
Aleksandra Szczesny '22 [7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers112233445
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears223344556
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars334455667
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears9910101111121213
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels445566778
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons556677889
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson6677889910
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers778899101011
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams10101111121213131
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls111112121313112
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos88991010111112
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1212131311223
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs13131122334

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers112233445
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears223344556
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars334455667
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears9910101111121213
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels445566778
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons556677889
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson6677889910
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers778899101011
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams10101111121213131
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls111112121313112
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos88991010111112
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1212131311223
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs13131122334
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston University Boston University Grace Mooradian '21 Hannah Davis '19
Terriers Allison Cahn '20 Shannon Macdonald '21
Brown University Brown University Hannah Steadman '20 Emily Ito '19
Bears Sophie Hibben '19 Megha Malpani '19
College of Charleston College of Charleston Alie Toppa '20 Annabel Carrington '19
Cougars Liza Toppa '20 [1-8]
Elizabeth Mignon '19 [9]		 Caroline Bracken '19 [1-8]
Liza Toppa '20 [9]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Analucia Clarkson '22 Erin Smith '19
Camels Alexandra Wagner '22 [1-9] Molly Weiner '21 [1-6, 9]
Aleksandra Szczesny '22 [7-8]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Ainsley Parramore '20 Delphine Carroll '19
Tritons Margaret Maccormack '21 [1-4, 7-9]
Carla Szeplaki '20 [5-6]		 Tatiana Chinitz '19 [1-4, 7-9]
Harvard University Harvard University Taylor Gavula '19 Emily Wang '21
Crimson Emma Kaneti '22 Emma Jakobson '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Dana Haig '22 [1-9] Lulu Russell '22 [1-4]
Abigail Lee '20 [5-9]
Engineers Meredith Julian '21 [1-4, 9]
Lulu Russell '22 [5-8]		 Isabelle Yen '21 [1-8]
Lulu Russell '22 [9]
Tufts University Tufts University Abbie Carlson '22 Taylor Hart '19
Jumbos Charlotte Lenz '20 Marley Hillman '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Darden Purrington '20 Halee Lewis '21
Bears Christina Nothacker '21 Anna Maria Vaccaro '19
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Delaney Bamford '20 Kathryn Nota '19
Rams Rebecca Read '21 Sage Walters '21
University of South Florida University of South Florida Marina Barzaghi '21 Darby Capellin '19
Bulls Kathryn Bornarth '21 Rachel Yannelli '19
University of Vermont University of Vermont Emma Marston '22 Helen Field '21
Catamounts Elizabeth Holiman '20 Kiley Roach '21
Yale University Yale University Louisa Nordstrom '20 Claudia Loiacono '21
Bulldogs Christine Klingler '20 Kira Woods '19

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1023.5 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From SE (132°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine6.7 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1023.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn · SW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Connecticut College: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.13 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →