Connecticut College '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 2.19 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.091 rating points from 149 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.79 (fleet 1.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–12 (14%) as crew 6–48 (11%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | — | 1–16 |
| Spring 2021 | 5 | 2–12 | 5–32 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (67 matches) the record is 8–59 against 10.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-09 | Camel Women's Team Race | crew | 1.42 | 0.46 | 1–15 | 2.1 | −0.96 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2021-04-25 | NEISA Team Race Championship for Fowle Trophy | crew | 1.78 | 3.39 | 1–9 | 0.2 | +1.61 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2021-04-02 | BC Team Race | crew | 1.76 | -1.24 | 0–12 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2021-03-27 | Thames River Team Race | crew | 1.75 | 0.70 | 3–7 | 4.3 | −1.04 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2021-03-20 | Southern New England Team Race | crew | 1.52 | 0.94 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.59 | 0.1 | 90% |
| 2021-03-13 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 0.86 | 0.33 | 2–12 | 2.4 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 7 Fleet Race | Crew | B | 4 | 11.0 | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 12.5 | — |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 8.0 | — |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Crew | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | A, B | 9 | 9.1 | — |
| Camel Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 16 | 6% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 1 | 12.0 | — |
| Sister Ester | Crew | B | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 13.1 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B, C | 4 | 17.2 | — |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 14.2 | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 12.5 | — |
| Thames River Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| New England Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 13.5 | — |
| NEISA Team Race Championship for Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Coed New England Championship | Crew | B | 4 | 15.5 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Camel invite | Crew | B | 9 | 12.7 | — |
| BC Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Tournament Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 9.6 | — |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 11.8 | — |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A, B | 4 | 12.5 | — |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 15.4 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 12.8 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | A, B | 10 | 6.9 | — |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 6.0 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 13.2 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A, B | 11 | 13.2 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 13 | 13.6 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 5.8 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.4 | 0.92 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 14.0 | 0.75 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.4 | 0.69 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 14.6 | -0.02 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.1 | 1.48 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | A | 1 | 10.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
