| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams 1 | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears 2 | 7–2 |
| 4 | |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears 1 | 6–3 |
| 5 | |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears 3 | 5–4 |
| 6 | |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | 5–4 |
| 7 | |
University of Rhode Island | Rams 2 | 4–5 |
| 8 | |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 3 | 1–8 |
| 9 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels 2 | 1–8 |
| 10 | |
Connecticut College | Camels 1 | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,346 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 45 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.379 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.12 ± 0.28: a typical event, more orderly than 56% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Connecticut College Camels 1 | 3.20 | 4.74 | 1–8 | 0.3 | +1.53 | 0.9 | 26% |
| 3 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 | 7.67 | 8.91 | 7–2 | 5.3 | +1.24 | 1.5 | 16% |
| 6 | Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 7.13 | 7.64 | 5–4 | 4.2 | +0.51 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2 | University of Rhode Island Rams 1 | 8.43 | 8.74 | 7–2 | 6.6 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 5 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 | 7.56 | 7.49 | 5–4 | 5.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 9.64 | 9.54 | 8–1 | 8.1 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 4 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 | 8.25 | 8.02 | 6–3 | 6.3 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 7 | University of Rhode Island Rams 2 | 7.33 | 6.91 | 4–5 | 4.6 | −0.43 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 9 | Connecticut College Camels 2 | 5.23 | 4.37 | 1–8 | 1.5 | −0.86 | 0.3 | 92% |
| 8 | Roger Williams University Hawks 3 | 6.25 | 3.74 | 1–8 | 3.0 | −2.51 | 3.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 14–13 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | L |
| University of Rhode Island Rams 1 | 11–7 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 | 18–9 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | L | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 | 18–9 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | L | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 | 18–9 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | L | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 14–13 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | L |
| University of Rhode Island Rams 2 | 11–7 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 3 | 14–13 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | L | L |
| Connecticut College Camels 2 | 2–16 | W | L | L | L | L | W | L | W | ✕ | ✕ |
| Connecticut College Camels 1 | 2–16 | W | L | L | L | L | W | L | W | ✕ | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Camels 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears 3 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Bears 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Rams 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Hawks 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 3 | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Rams 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hawks 3 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Bears 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Bears 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Rams 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Bears 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 3 | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Rams 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Camels 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 2-3-6 |
| 43 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
