University of Rhode Island '21
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 38.36 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 11 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.27 (fleet 3.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–44 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 5–9 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 17–17 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 5–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 26–44 against 28.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-27 | Robin Wallace Team Race | skipper | 2.54 | 1.40 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.14 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 2021-03-20 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.48 | 2.06 | 4–5 | 4.6 | −0.43 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.55 | 3.27 | 14–6 | 11.6 | +0.72 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2020-02-29 | Hap Moore Trophy | skipper | 2.46 | 2.66 | 3–11 | 2.6 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.44 | 1.19 | 3–9 | 5.6 | −1.26 | 2.3 | 98% |
| 2019-03-24 | Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.23 | 2.37 | 1–5 | 0.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.10 | -0.90 | 0–4 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.8 | 3.27 |
| Boston University Invite | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.3 | 2.02 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Robin Wallace Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Robin Wallace Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.0 | 3.48 |
| Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.4 | 2.22 |
| Camel invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.7 | -0.05 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 73% | — |
| Hap Moore Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 12.6 | 2.36 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.5 | 3.06 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.8 | 3.32 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.1 | 3.35 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.8 | 3.38 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.8 | 2.71 |
| Coed Showcase Tournament | Crew | B | 3 | 3.7 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Southern 7 at URI | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 1.85 |
| Salve Saturday Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.8 | 1.61 |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.4 | 3.39 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.6 | 2.80 |
| Lark Invite | Crew | A | 8 | 7.0 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Lark Invite- Central Series One | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | — |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.5 | 1.30 |
| Central | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 3.59 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Christian Moffitt |  The Prout School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
