| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | 5–0 |
| 2 | |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams 1 | 3–2 |
| 4 | |
University of Rhode Island | Rams 2 | 1–4 |
| 5 | |
University of Rhode Island | Rams 3 | 1–4 |
| 6 | |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 3 | 1–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,436 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 15 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.385 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.49 ± 0.51: a typical event, more orderly than 93% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 9.75 | 12.75 | 5–0 | 4.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 2 | Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 7.63 | 9.57 | 4–1 | 2.4 | +1.94 | 2.1 | 12% |
| 6 | Roger Williams University Hawks 3 | 6.62 | 6.38 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 3 | University of Rhode Island Rams 1 | 8.45 | 8.05 | 3–2 | 3.3 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 5 | University of Rhode Island Rams 3 | 6.96 | 6.24 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.72 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 4 | University of Rhode Island Rams 2 | 7.31 | 6.17 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.14 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hoogland | Roger Williams University | 3.23 | 6.23 | 5–0 | 4.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 58% |
| George Higham | Roger Williams University | 2.03 | 3.97 | 4–1 | 2.4 | +1.94 | 2.1 | 12% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | Roger Williams University | 2.10 | 1.86 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Michaela Odonnell | Roger Williams University | 1.68 | 1.44 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Aidan Naughton | University of Rhode Island | 2.83 | 2.43 | 3–2 | 3.3 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Kylie Castellano | University of Rhode Island | 2.30 | 1.58 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.72 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Zachary Champney | University of Rhode Island | 2.01 | 1.29 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.72 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | University of Rhode Island | 2.59 | 1.45 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.14 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Ben Rosenberg | University of Rhode Island | 2.30 | 1.16 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.14 | 0.8 | 94% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 10–5 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 10–5 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ |
| University of Rhode Island Rams 1 | 5–10 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| University of Rhode Island Rams 2 | 5–10 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| University of Rhode Island Rams 3 | 5–10 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 3 | 10–5 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Rams 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams 3 | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Rams 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Rams 3 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks 3 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams 3 | 1-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | Aidan Hoogland '24 Cameron Wood '22 Riley Read '22 |
Molly Matthews '23 Emily Gildea '21 Rachel Holick '22 Annika Irene '23 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | George Higham '23 John Walton '22 William Bailey '24 |
Jaqueline Frode '22 Grace Woodcock '23 Darcy Lavoie '21 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams 1 | Aidan Naughton '22 Luke Ingalls '21 Parker Colantuono '22 |
Taylor Borges '22 Caitlin Abel '21 Arturo Ortega '22 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams 2 | Ben Rosenberg '23 Christian Moffitt '21 Michael O'Flaherty '21 |
Katie Coughlin '24 Mackenzie Fraser '23 Maguire Bennett '21 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams 3 | Kylie Castellano '21 Rebecca Read '21 Zachary Champney '22 |
Sadie Thomas '25 Sage Walters '21 Emilia Marino '22 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 3 | Claire Siegel-Wilson '24 Luke Hosek '24 Michaela Odonnell '24 |
Ian Coen '24 Katharine Benagh '24 Hank Bailey '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
