University of Rhode Island '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.11 (fleet 2.91) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–16 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 7–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 8–16 against 7.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-27 | Robin Wallace Team Race | skipper | 2.30 | 1.58 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.72 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 1.95 | 2.35 | 7–12 | 5.7 | +0.40 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.2 | 3.09 |
| Salve Regina Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.0 | 1.30 |
| 2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.8 | 3.44 |
| Robin Wallace Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Robin Wallace Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.6 | 2.81 |
| New England Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.2 | 0.42 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.8 | 1.75 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.9 | 3.24 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.2 | 1.86 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.1 | 3.60 |
| Chuck Fontaine Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.5 | 0.36 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 37% | — |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 16.0 | 1.58 |
| Southern 5 | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.7 | 1.41 |
| Salve Sunday 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 1.56 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.7 | 2.22 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 2.85 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.5 | 2.15 |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.2 | 3.01 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Tyrell Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.8 | 2.84 |
| Southern Series at URI | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.5 | — |
| Central 3 at URI | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.5 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Southern Seven | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.0 | 0.73 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 1 | 10.0 | — |
| Invite at Harvard | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.2 | -2.63 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
