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Robin Wallace Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 18 18
2 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 28 28
3 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 7 29 29
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 31 31
5 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 32 32
6 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 5 35 35
7 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 38 38
8 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 40 40
9 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6 46 46
10 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 6 48 48
11 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 5 49 49
12 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 51 51
13 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 9 53 53
14 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 8 57 57
15 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 7 62 62
16 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 8 64 64
17 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 73 73
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 11111111111
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 21212121212
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 31313131313
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 41414141414
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 51515151515
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 61616161616
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 71717171717
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 81818181818
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 111111
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 222222
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 333333
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 444444
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 555555
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 666666
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 777777
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 888888
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 999999

Conditions — 03/27/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1019.5 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From W (267°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1019.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.24
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.99 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →