Roger Williams University '24
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 18.59 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.097 rating points from 83 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 66–55 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | — | 15–10 |
| Spring 2022 | 6 | — | 49–39 |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | — | 2–6 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (121 matches) the record is 66–55 against 67.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-25 | Team Racing Invite | crew | 2.52 | 2.81 | 12–8 | 10.8 | +0.29 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2023-03-04 | McMerrick Cup | crew | 2.56 | 3.63 | 3–2 | 2.2 | +1.08 | 0.6 | 35% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | crew | 2.39 | 2.17 | 10–4 | 10.5 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2022-04-02 | Yale TR @ Connecticut College | crew | 2.21 | 3.75 | 5–2 | 2.7 | +1.54 | 2.5 | 7% |
| 2022-03-26 | Boston University Team Race | crew | 2.25 | 1.38 | 8–12 | 11.6 | −0.87 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 2022-03-19 | The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.34 | 1.81 | 7–14 | 9.2 | −0.53 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2022-03-12 | MIT Team Race Invite | crew | 2.38 | 0.71 | 1–4 | 2.3 | −1.67 | 1.4 | 98% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | crew | 2.17 | 2.82 | 18–3 | 16.1 | +0.64 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2021-03-27 | Robin Wallace Team Race | crew | 2.10 | 1.86 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2021-03-20 | Southern New England Team Race | crew | 2.03 | 1.24 | 1–2 | 1.2 | −0.79 | 0.1 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Racing Invite | Crew | TR | 20 | 60% | — |
| McMerrick Cup | Crew | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Z420 Regatta | Crew | A | 6 | 3.7 | — |
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | B | 12 | 6.8 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Crew | B | 5 | 3.8 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 7.5 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale TR @ Connecticut College | Crew | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Sunday Salve Invite | Crew | B | 5 | 1.6 | — |
| Mystic Lake TR | Crew | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Crew | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 21 | 33% | — |
| Boston University Team Race | Crew | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Crew | B | 10 | 10.0 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Crew | B | 10 | 3.7 | — |
| Hood Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 7.6 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | A | 14 | 7.6 | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Robin Wallace Team Race | Crew | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Robin Wallace Fleet Race | Crew | A | 5 | 12.4 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
