Team Racing Invite

HostHarvard
Date03/25/2023
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	19–1
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–8
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	12–8
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	10–10
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	7–10
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	7–10
7	Connecticut College	Camels	5–12
8	Harvard University	Crimson	2–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,149 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 55 of 74 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.542 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.02 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 44% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	2	7.39 school +0.21	Nick Budington / Josie Warfield 2.50 Chip Kreuzkamp / Kennedy Laureigh 1.79 Jack Redmond / Lourdes Gallo 2.81	66%	19–1 (95%)	+5.8
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	4	6.87 school +0.29	Ian Hopkins Guerra / Ian Coen Luke Hosek / Katharine Benagh 1.93 Drew Mastovsky / Dominique Spinola 1.89	54%	12–8 (60%)	+1.2
3	Yale University Bulldogs	1	7.53 school +0.27	Alex Adams / Mary Madaus 2.21 Christophe Chaumont / Catherine Cheung 2.38 Sam Tobin / Jessi Avila-Shah 2.61	69%	12–8 (60%)	−1.9
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	6	6.85 school +0.33	Nicholas Hurley / Faye Benjamin 2.38 7–7 Griffin Lapham / Maya Nguyen 1.83 7–7 Bella Casaretto / Phoebe Lee 2.25 7–7 Nicholas Hurley / Dagny Scannell 2.27 3–3 Griffin Lapham / Sudi Zhao 1.72 3–3 Bella Casaretto / Madeline Koelbel 2.29 3–3	52%	10–10 (50%)	−0.4
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5	6.47 school −0.07	Jack Derry / Aiana Cayao 2.34 Luke Zylinski / Celia Houston 2.10 Bradley Whiteway / Sarah Krajewski 1.98 4–6 Bradley Whiteway / Allison Nystrom 2.01 3–4	52%	7–10 (41%)	−1.9
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7	5.73	Matthew Elliott / Yitian Zhu 2.27 6–9 Max Katz-Christy / Sarah Aaronson 2.08 7–8 Brooke Barry / Soleh Anderlini 5–5 Brooke Barry 2–5 Max Katz-Christy / Soleh Anderlini 2.10 0–2 Matthew Elliott / Soleh Anderlini 2.29 1–1	35%	7–10 (41%)	+1.1
7	Connecticut College Camels	3	6.65 school +0.36	Charles Bresnahan / Ruth Reischmann 1.84 Aili Moffet / Miya Preyer 1.94 Harris Padegs / Ashley Breyer 2.46	57%	5–12 (29%)	−4.8
8	Harvard University Crimson	8	3.86 school +0.25, home +0.40	Alexander Lee / Isabel Eddy Matthew Cabot / Lily Bartlett Olivia Hogan-Lopez / Abigail Fennelly	6%	2–15 (12%)	+0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Boston College	7.39	9.78	19–1	13.2	+2.39	7.7	<1%
8	Harvard University	3.86	4.54	2–15	1.1	+0.68	0.5	30%
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	5.73	6.08	7–10	5.9	+0.35	0.3	36%
2	Roger Williams University	6.87	7.16	12–8	10.8	+0.29	0.3	36%
4	Dartmouth College	6.85	6.75	10–10	10.4	−0.10	0.0	67%
3	Yale University	7.53	7.07	12–8	13.9	−0.46	0.6	88%
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	6.47	5.88	7–10	8.9	−0.59	0.8	91%
7	Connecticut College	6.65	5.11	5–12	9.8	−1.54	5.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Chip Kreuzkamp	Boston College	1.79	4.19	19–1	13.2	+2.39	7.7	<1%
Alexander Lee	Harvard University	0.81	1.49	2–15	1.1	+0.68	0.5	30%
Matthew Cabot	Harvard University	1.13	1.81	2–15	1.1	+0.68	0.5	30%
Olivia Hogan-Lopez	Harvard University	0.74	1.42	2–15	1.1	+0.68	0.5	30%
Max Katz-Christy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.08	2.43	7–10	5.9	+0.35	0.3	36%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	1.27	1.62	7–10	5.9	+0.35	0.3	36%
Drew Mastovsky	Roger Williams University	1.89	2.18	12–8	10.8	+0.29	0.3	36%
Nicholas Hurley	Dartmouth College	2.38	2.27	10–10	10.4	−0.10	0.0	67%
Griffin Lapham	Dartmouth College	1.83	1.73	10–10	10.4	−0.10	0.0	67%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	2.25	2.15	10–10	10.4	−0.10	0.0	67%
Alex Adams	Yale University	2.21	1.75	12–8	13.9	−0.46	0.6	88%
Sam Tobin	Yale University	2.61	2.15	12–8	13.9	−0.46	0.6	88%
Jack Derry	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.34	1.75	7–10	8.9	−0.59	0.8	91%
Luke Zylinski	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.10	1.52	7–10	8.9	−0.59	0.8	91%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.98	1.40	7–10	8.9	−0.59	0.8	91%
Charles Bresnahan	Connecticut College	1.84	0.30	5–12	9.8	−1.54	5.0	>99%
Aili Moffet	Connecticut College	1.94	0.40	5–12	9.8	−1.54	5.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	97%
1	2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	51%
1	4	Boston College	Yale University	46%	upset
1	5	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	61%
1	6	Connecticut College	Harvard University	96%
1	7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	13%	upset
1	8	Boston College	Roger Williams University	65%
1	9	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	55%
1	10	Yale University	Dartmouth College	66%
1	11	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	96%
1	12	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
1	13	Yale University	Connecticut College	71%
1	14	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	59%
1	15	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	77%
1	16	Boston College	Harvard University	97%
1	17	Yale University	Roger Williams University	67%
1	18	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	28%	upset
1	19	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	94%
1	20	Dartmouth College	Boston College	38%	upset
1	21	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	75%
1	22	Yale University	Harvard University	98%
1	23	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	50%	upset
1	24	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
1	25	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	87%
1	26	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	45%	upset
1	27	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	74%
1	28	Boston College	Connecticut College	68%
1	57	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	46%	upset
1	58	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	15%	upset
1	59	Harvard University	Connecticut College	7%	upset
1	60	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	67%
1	61	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	92%
1	62	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
1	63	Yale University	Dartmouth College	64%
1	64	Boston College	Roger Williams University	62%
1	65	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	55%
1	66	Boston College	Yale University	47%	upset
1	67	Roger Williams University	Yale University	35%	upset
1	68	Boston College	Dartmouth College	61%
2	29	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	95%
2	30	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
2	31	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	60%
2	32	Boston College	Yale University	47%	upset
2	33	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	51%
2	34	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	93%
2	35	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
2	36	Boston College	Roger Williams University	62%
2	37	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	46%	upset
2	38	Dartmouth College	Yale University	35%	upset
2	39	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	95%
2	40	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	84%
2	41	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	74%
2	42	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	56%
2	43	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	24%	upset
2	44	Boston College	Harvard University	97%
2	45	Roger Williams University	Yale University	35%	upset
2	46	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	32%	upset
2	47	Connecticut College	Harvard University	93%
2	48	Boston College	Dartmouth College	61%
2	49	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	25%	upset
2	50	Yale University	Harvard University	97%
2	51	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	61%
2	52	Boston College	Connecticut College	68%
2	53	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	85%
2	54	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	55%
2	55	Yale University	Connecticut College	70%
2	56	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
2	69	Boston College	Dartmouth College	61%
2	70	Boston College	Yale University	47%	upset
2	71	Boston College	Roger Williams University	62%
2	72	Yale University	Dartmouth College	64%
2	73	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	55%
2	74	Yale University	Roger Williams University	64%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Hawks	Bulldogs	Green	Bears	Engineers	Camels	Crimson
Boston College Eagles	9–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–4	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	6–4	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–7	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	L
Connecticut College Camels	3–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Harvard University Crimson	2–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Hawks	Bulldogs	Green	Bears	Engineers	Camels	Crimson
Boston College Eagles	10–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–4	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	6–4	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–6	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–3	L	W	L	W	W	✕	L	W
Connecticut College Camels	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Harvard University Crimson	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
2	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
3	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
4	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
5	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
6	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
7	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
8	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
9	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
11	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
12	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
13	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
14	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
15	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
16	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
18	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
19	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
20	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
21	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
22	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
23	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
24	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
25	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
26	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
27	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
28	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
57	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
58	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
59	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6 DSQ
60	Bears	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
61	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
62	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
63	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
64	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
65	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6 DNF
66	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
67	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
68	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
29	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
30	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
31	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
32	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
33	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
34	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
35	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
36	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
37	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Camels	2-3-6
38	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
39	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
40	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
41	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
42	Hawks	1-2-6 DNS	def.	Camels	3-4-5
43	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
44	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
45	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
46	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
47	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
48	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
49	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
50	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
51	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
52	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
53	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
54	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6 DSQ
55	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
56	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
69	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
70	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
71	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
72	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
73	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
74	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Chip Kreuzkamp '24 Jack Redmond '26 Nick Budington '25	Kennedy Laureigh '26 Lourdes Gallo '24 Josie Warfield '23
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Drew Mastovsky '26 Ian Hopkins Guerra '26 Luke Hosek '24	Dominique Spinola '26 Ian Coen '24 Katharine Benagh '24
Yale University	Bulldogs	Alex Adams '26 Christophe Chaumont '23 Sam Tobin '23	Mary Madaus '25 Catherine Cheung '24 Jessi Avila-Shah '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Griffin Lapham '25 Nicholas Hurley '23	Phoebe Lee '26 Madeline Koelbel '26 Maya Nguyen '24 Sudi Zhao '26 Faye Benjamin '25 Dagny Scannell '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Bradley Whiteway '26 Jack Derry '25 Luke Zylinski '26	Sarah Krajewski '26 Allison Nystrom '26 Aiana Cayao '26 Celia Houston '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Matthew Elliott '24 Max Katz-Christy '25	Soleh Anderlini '23 Yitian Zhu '25 Sarah Aaronson '23
Connecticut College	Camels	Aili Moffet '23 Charles Bresnahan '24 Harris Padegs '23	Miya Preyer '23 Ruth Reischmann '23 Ashley Breyer '24
Harvard University	Crimson	Alexander Lee '23 Matthew Cabot '24 Olivia Hogan-Lopez '26	Isabel Eddy '24 Lily Bartlett '24 Abigail Fennelly '24

Conditions — 03/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 72% · Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

40°F

↑ 41°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.9 kn

avg · max 15.1 kn

Gusts to 26.2 kn

From ESE (102°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.0 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1019.6 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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