Yale University '23
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 17.91 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.111 rating points from 20 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.46 (fleet 3.47) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 51–91 (36%) as crew 18–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 16–14 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 7–5 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 4 | 11–14 | 11–0 |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 4–24 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 5–13 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 6 | 8–21 | 7–0 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 17 graded regattas (159 matches) the record is 68–91 against 77.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−9.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 11 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 19 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-25 | Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.61 | 2.15 | 12–8 | 13.9 | −0.46 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 2023-03-05 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 2.14 | 4–6 | 5.0 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2022-10-29 | Dave Perry Trophy | skipper | 2.75 | 1.85 | 7–5 | 8.9 | −0.90 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2022-04-02 | Yale TR @ Connecticut College | skipper | 2.34 | 1.54 | 4–3 | 5.2 | −0.81 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2022-03-19 | 2022 Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 3.80 | 6.80 | 7–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.2 | 10% |
| 2022-03-12 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 3.41 | 4–4 | 2.5 | +0.90 | 1.0 | 21% |
| 2022-03-12 | Rudkin Team Race | crew | 2.51 | 5.51 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| 2022-03-05 | Hap Moore | skipper | 2.38 | 1.51 | 3–7 | 4.7 | −0.87 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2020-03-07 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 2.38 | 1.38 | 1–23 | 2.4 | −1.00 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2020-02-29 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.45 | 2.60 | 3–1 | 2.9 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2019-10-26 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.54 | 0.60 | 1–7 | 3.5 | −1.93 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 2019-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.54 | 1.85 | 4–6 | 5.4 | −0.69 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.27 | 4.12 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.85 | 1.8 | 15% |
| 2019-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.21 | 1.63 | 1–3 | 1.4 | −0.59 | 0.2 | 87% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | crew | 3.75 | 6.75 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 2019-03-09 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 1.99 | 0.09 | 2–12 | 4.4 | −1.90 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 2019-03-02 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.68 | 2.85 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.16 | 0.5 | 41% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.4 | 3.13 |
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.1 | 3.39 |
| The Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.7 | 3.68 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 8.8 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale TR @ Connecticut College | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Rudkin Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Hap Moore | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| 2022 Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 4% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.0 | 2.97 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.4 | 3.94 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 3.07 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 2.69 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.0 | 1.95 |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.8 | 3.07 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 25 | 84% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Graham Hall | Crew | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | A | 7 | 5.0 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.1 | 1.73 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2018 | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.9 | 2.72 |
| Lark Invite | Crew | A | 8 | 7.1 | — |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 18.8 | — |
| Fiske-Harriman-Sleigh Trophy Coed Showcase | Crew | A | 5 | 10.6 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 11 | 11.5 | 2.46 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
