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Rudkin Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 11–1
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 8–4
3 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 8–4
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 7–5
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 5–7
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2–10
7 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1–11
8 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,723 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 42 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.404 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.02 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 44% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Connecticut College
Camels		29.77
school +0.23		Cj Mckenna / Liam Gronda 3.40 9–1
Walter Henry / Katherine Wetzel 2.97 9–1
Thomas Whittemore / Alexandra Tillinghast 3.22 5–1
Thomas Whittemore / Jean-Michel Bus 3.23 6–0
Cj Mckenna / Cecilia Bohan 3.37 2–0
William Bedford / Margaret Benson 2.56 2–0		82%11–1 (92%)+1.2
2Roger Williams University
Hawks		19.85
school +0.42, home +0.35		Riley Read / Carly Kiss 3.02 6–4
John Walton / Jaqueline Frode 3.20 7–3
Mathieu Dale / Annika Irene 2.92 5–3
George Higham / Grace Woodcock 2.89 6–2		83%8–4 (67%)−1.9
3Yale University
Bulldogs		48.41
school +0.22		Christophe Chaumont / Allison Rice 2.49 6–4
Sam Tobin / Becca Rose 2.51 4–4
Mateo Farina / Teddy Horangic 2.83 4–4
Nicholas Davies / Becca Rose 3.06 4–0
Nathan Sih / Sam Tobin 3.08 4–0
Mateo Farina / Allison Rice 2.78 2–0		53%8–4 (67%)+1.7
4Boston University
Terriers		38.68Micky Munns / Matthew Hamelsky 2.73
Tyler Mowry / Catherine Shakin 3.10
Noah Robitshek / Carolyn Kravets 2.85		61%7–5 (58%)−0.3
5Jacksonville University
Fins		57.74Gordon Gurnell / Lauren Theis 2.82
Matthew King / Sara Flowerday 2.85
Brent Penwarden / Mary Mann 1.99		43%5–7 (42%)−0.1
6University of South Florida
Bulls		66.38Andreas Keswater / Emmy Digiacomo 2.03
Emma Shakespeare / Carolina Perez Rovira 2.48
Jordan Byrd / Jackie Morrison 1.78		17%2–10 (17%)−0.1
7Eckerd College
Tritons		75.92Eden Nykamp / Joshua Cole 2.28
Cameron Robinson / Sophia Hacket 1.51
Griffin Richardson / Elissa Martinez 1.98 1–5
Griffin Richardson / Brooks Jordan 1.98 0–6		11%1–11 (8%)−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Connecticut College9.7710.8111–19.8+1.030.831%
3Yale University8.419.368–46.3+0.951.218%
5Jacksonville University7.747.675–75.1−0.060.067%
6University of South Florida6.386.312–102.1−0.070.069%
4Boston University8.688.497–57.3−0.190.074%
7Eckerd College5.925.531–111.4−0.390.180%
2Roger Williams University9.858.748–49.9−1.111.697%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Nicholas DaviesYale University3.066.064–03.8≥+3.000.380%
Thomas WhittemoreConnecticut College3.224.2611–19.8+1.030.831%
Walter HenryConnecticut College2.973.969–17.9+0.990.733%
Mateo FarinaYale University2.833.766–44.4+0.931.119%
Sam TobinYale University2.513.414–42.5+0.901.021%
Andreas KeswaterUniversity of South Florida2.031.962–102.1−0.070.069%
Jordan ByrdUniversity of South Florida1.781.722–102.1−0.070.069%
George HighamRoger Williams University2.891.806–27.1−1.090.996%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Jacksonville UniversityEckerd College87%
12Connecticut CollegeRoger Williams University48%upset
13Boston UniversityUniversity of South Florida91%
14Yale UniversityEckerd College95%
15Jacksonville UniversityConnecticut College11%upset
16Boston UniversityRoger Williams University22%upset
17Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida94%
18Connecticut CollegeEckerd College98%
19Jacksonville UniversityBoston University28%upset
110Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of South Florida97%
111Connecticut CollegeYale University86%
112Boston UniversityEckerd College94%
113University of South FloridaJacksonville University20%upset
114Roger Williams UniversityYale University82%
115Connecticut CollegeBoston University77%
116University of South FloridaEckerd College61%
117Roger Williams UniversityJacksonville University90%
118Boston UniversityYale University64%
119Connecticut CollegeUniversity of South Florida95%
120Roger Williams UniversityEckerd College98%
121Yale UniversityJacksonville University59%
222Jacksonville UniversityEckerd College86%
223Connecticut CollegeRoger Williams University48%upset
224Boston UniversityUniversity of South Florida91%
225Yale UniversityEckerd College95%
226Connecticut CollegeJacksonville University89%
227Roger Williams UniversityBoston University77%
228Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida94%
229Connecticut CollegeEckerd College98%
230Boston UniversityJacksonville University72%
231Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of South Florida97%
232Connecticut CollegeYale University85%
233Boston UniversityEckerd College94%
234Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida79%
235Yale UniversityRoger Williams University18%upset
236Connecticut CollegeBoston University76%
237Eckerd CollegeUniversity of South Florida40%upset
238Roger Williams UniversityJacksonville University90%
239Yale UniversityBoston University36%upset
240Connecticut CollegeUniversity of South Florida95%
241Roger Williams UniversityEckerd College98%
242Yale UniversityJacksonville University59%

Round 1

TeamRec.CamelsHawksBulldogsTerriersFinsBullsTritons
Connecticut College Camels5–1✕WWWLWW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–2L✕WLWWW
Yale University Bulldogs3–3LL✕LWWW
Boston University Terriers4–2LWW✕LWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–3WLLW✕LW
University of South Florida Bulls2–4LLLLW✕W
Eckerd College Tritons0–6LLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CamelsHawksBulldogsTerriersFinsBullsTritons
Connecticut College Camels6–0✕WWWWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–2L✕LWWWW
Yale University Bulldogs5–1LW✕WWWW
Boston University Terriers3–3LLL✕WWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–4LLLL✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls0–6LLLLL✕L
Eckerd College Tritons1–5LLLLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-5
2 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
3 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
4 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-5-6
5 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
6 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-4-6
7 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
8 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. Eckerd College Tritons 4-5-6
9 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 1-4-6
10 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
11 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-5-6
12 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 2-4-6
13 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
14 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-5
15 Connecticut College Camels 2-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 1-5-6
16 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 2-4-5
17 Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 DSQ,DSQ,DSQ
18 Boston University Terriers 1-3-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-4-5
19 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
20 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Eckerd College Tritons 4-5-6
21 Yale University Bulldogs 1-4-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-6
22 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. Eckerd College Tritons 4-5-6
23 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
24 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
25 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-6
26 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
27 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
28 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
29 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-5-6
30 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
31 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
32 Connecticut College Camels 2-3-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 1-4-6
33 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Eckerd College Tritons 4-5-6
34 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
35 Yale University Bulldogs 1-4-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-6
36 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
37 Eckerd College Tritons 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-6
38 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
39 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
40 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
41 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 2-4-6
42 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/12/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 92%  ·  Pressure 989.1 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.1 kn
avg  ·  max 18.6 kn
Gusts to 27.2 kn
From NW (307°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity92% Pressure989.1 hPa Rain0.50 in

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →