University of South Florida '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.83 (fleet 2.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 32–71 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 20–19 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 5–19 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 7–33 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (103 matches) the record is 32–71 against 31.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-17 | Sunshine City Team Race (USF Next 5) | skipper | 2.18 | 2.88 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.70 | 0.3 | 50% |
| 2024-03-16 | Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd) | skipper | 2.07 | 4.40 | 4–5 | 1.4 | +2.33 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2024-03-09 | The Turner Team Race | skipper | 2.12 | 0.74 | 5–3 | 6.8 | −1.38 | 2.0 | 98% |
| 2024-02-17 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.01 | 1.77 | 8–10 | 8.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2023-04-01 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 1.88 | 1.72 | 5–7 | 5.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2023-03-25 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 1.90 | -1.10 | 0–12 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| 2022-04-09 | SAISA Open Team Race Championships | skipper | 1.79 | 2.69 | 5–5 | 3.5 | +0.90 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 2022-03-12 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 1.78 | 1.72 | 2–10 | 2.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2022-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 1.34 | -1.66 | 0–18 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
