| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 10–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 5–7 |
| 4 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 3–9 |
| 5 | |
Jacksonville University | Lady Fins | 1–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 20,646 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 30 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.448 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 57% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University Green Wave | 2 | 7.19 home +0.41 | William Keenan / Alex Makoid 2.50 Jack Solmo / Raquel Shulman Matheo Graham-Capasso / Ella May Corckran 2.14 | 66% | 11–1 (92%) | +3.0 |
| 2 | Jacksonville University Fins | 1 | 7.42 school −0.09 | Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.67 Matthew King / Rori Bywater 2.75 Brent Penwarden / Grayson Tella 2.06 | 72% | 10–2 (83%) | +1.3 |
| 3 | University of South Florida Bulls | 4 | 6.30 | Andreas Keswater / Melissa Janes 2.20 Jordan Byrd / Erik Volk 1.88 Humberto Porrata / Emmy Digiacomo 2.23 | 44% | 5–7 (42%) | −0.3 |
| 4 | Eckerd College Tritons | 3 | 6.98 | Matthew Monts / Amelia Johnson 2.37 Eden Nykamp / Elissa Martinez 2.43 Griffin Richardson / Brooks Jordan 2.14 | 61% | 3–9 (25%) | −4.3 |
| 5 | Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 5 | 4.06 school −0.09 | Ella Bilow / Kayla Putzke Ella Deschamps / Nilias Vidarte Kaitlyn Liebel / Mary Mann 1.75 | 6% | 1–11 (8%) | +0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University Green Wave | 7.19 | 9.09 | 11–1 | 8.0 | +1.90 | 3.5 | 4% |
| 2 | Jacksonville University Fins | 7.42 | 8.14 | 10–2 | 8.7 | +0.72 | 0.7 | 29% |
| 5 | Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 4.06 | 4.50 | 1–11 | 0.7 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 3 | University of South Florida Bulls | 6.30 | 6.15 | 5–7 | 5.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 4 | Eckerd College Tritons | 6.98 | 4.76 | 3–9 | 7.4 | −2.22 | 6.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Keenan | Tulane University | 2.50 | 4.40 | 11–1 | 8.0 | +1.90 | 3.5 | 4% |
| Jack Solmo | Tulane University | 1.95 | 3.85 | 11–1 | 8.0 | +1.90 | 3.5 | 4% |
| Matheo Graham-Capasso | Tulane University | 2.14 | 4.04 | 11–1 | 8.0 | +1.90 | 3.5 | 4% |
| Andreas Keswater | University of South Florida | 2.20 | 2.05 | 5–7 | 5.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Jordan Byrd | University of South Florida | 1.88 | 1.72 | 5–7 | 5.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Matthew Monts | Eckerd College | 2.37 | 0.15 | 3–9 | 7.4 | −2.22 | 6.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Fins | Bulls | Tritons | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 4–4 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–2 | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 4–4 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Fins | Bulls | Tritons | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 4–4 | L | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 4–4 | L | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Fins | Bulls | Tritons | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–5 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–2 | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 3–5 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tritons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Lady Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Jack Solmo '25 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 William Keenan '23 |
Raquel Shulman '25 Ella May Corckran '26 Alex Makoid '25 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Brent Penwarden '24 Emily Allen '25 Matthew King '24 |
Grayson Tella '26 Reagan Carris '26 Rori Bywater '25 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Andreas Keswater '24 Humberto Porrata '25 Jordan Byrd '24 |
Melissa Janes '26 Emmy Digiacomo '24 Erik Volk '23 |
|
Eckerd College | Tritons | Eden Nykamp '25 Griffin Richardson '25 Matthew Monts '24 |
Elissa Martinez '23 Brooks Jordan '24 Amelia Johnson '25 |
|
Jacksonville University | Lady Fins | Ella Bilow '26 Ella Deschamps '25 Kaitlyn Liebel '26 |
Kayla Putzke '24 Nilias Vidarte '26 Mary Mann '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
