Eckerd College '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.06 (fleet 2.91) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–28 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 22–28 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 22–28 against 26.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-07 | SAISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.26 | 2.07 | 4–8 | 4.4 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2023-04-01 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 2.37 | 0.15 | 3–9 | 7.4 | −2.22 | 6.5 | >99% |
| 2023-03-11 | The Turner Team Race | skipper | 2.32 | 1.52 | 9–3 | 9.9 | −0.80 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 2023-03-04 | Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | skipper | 1.99 | 2.60 | 6–8 | 4.9 | +0.61 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| The Turner Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| SAISA Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| SAISA Spring Open (Top 18) Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 2.68 |
| College Sailing Open Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.8 | 2.84 |
| SAISA Open Fleet Race Champs (Tillman Trophy) | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.2 | 2.92 |
| Nelson Roltsch Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Nelson Roltsch Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.8 | 1.98 |
| Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.0 | 2.90 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 16 | 3.2 | 3.39 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Fall Open Championship | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.8 | 2.99 |
| 2023 Rose Bowl Regatta - College | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 3.31 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.9 | 2.49 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.2 | 2.14 |
| SAISA Coed Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 3.8 | 3.42 |
| Coed ACC's Round 1B | Skipper | A | 12 | 16.8 | 0.94 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
