Nelson Roltsch Scrimmage

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 27 27
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 4 33 33
3 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 37 37
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 3 40 40
5 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 6 42 42
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 3 44 44
7 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 4 45 45
8 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 49 49
9 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 51 51
10 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 56 56
11 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 3 62 62
12 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 71 71
13 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 5 74 74
14 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 76 76
15 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 77 77
16 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 6 79 79
17 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 81 81
18 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 5 82 82
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 2 3 8 3 8 3 27 Zander King '25
Alex Makoid '25
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 4 7 4 2 13 2 5 33 Bobby Rielly '25
Ryan Ehnot '26
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 1 10 13 5 1 7 37 Jack Solmo '25
Ella May Corckran '26
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 3 5 6 9 7 9 4 40 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26
Raquel Shulman '25
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 6 15 9 4 8 5 1 42 Lucy Spearman '25
Brady Starck '25
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 3 11 2 1 11 17 2 44 Andreas Keswater '24
Melissa Janes '26
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 4 8 14 3 2 3 15 45 Gordon Gurnell '23
Nilias Vidarte '26
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 4 1 6 15 14 9 49 Eden Nykamp '25
Elissa Martinez '23
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 6 13 10 6 4 12 51 Emily Allen '25
Reagan Carris '26
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 10 11 18 1 10 6 56 Matthew King '24
Rori Bywater '25
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 3 16 5 12 9 6 14 62 Griffin Richardson '25
Brooks Jordan '24
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 18 12 15 4 12 10 71 Matthew Monts '24
Amelia Johnson '25
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 5 3 15 16 16 11 13 74 Kaitlyn Liebel '26
Mary Mann '23
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 9 17 7 10 16 17 76 Jordan Byrd '24
Erik Volk '23
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 14 8 17 12 15 11 77 Humberto Porrata '25
Emmy Digiacomo '24
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 6 17 7 5 14 18 18 79 Ella Deschamps '25
Grayson Tella '26
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 12 18 11 17 7 16 81 Brent Penwarden '24
Kayla Putzke '24
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 5 13 16 14 18 13 8 82 Ashley Hoguet '26
John Wood '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 1111111
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 2222222
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 3333333
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 1444444
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 2555555
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 3666666
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 4777777
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 5888888
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 6999999
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 1161616161616
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 2171717171717
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 3181818181818
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 1101010101010
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 2111111111111
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 3121212121212
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 4131313131313
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 5141414141414
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 6151515151515

Conditions — 04/02/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1017.2 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.0 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From E (100°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1017.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.13 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.27 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →