Tulane University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.31 (fleet 3.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–1 (96%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 12–0 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 11–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 23–1 against 19.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | SEISA Open Team Racing Championship | skipper | 2.50 | 5.50 | 8–0 | 8.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 97% |
| 2024-03-02 | Garner Tullis | skipper | 2.50 | 5.50 | 4–0 | 4.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 97% |
| 2023-04-01 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 1.95 | 3.85 | 11–1 | 8.0 | +1.90 | 3.5 | 4% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Baldwin Wood | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.4 | 3.13 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Open Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| Garner Tullis | Skipper | TR | 14 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.0 | 0.36 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Nelson Roltsch Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| Nelson Roltsch Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.2 | 3.51 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Baldwin-Wood | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.2 | 2.87 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
