| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 12–3 |
| 2 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 11–4 |
| 3 |  |
Florida State University | Seminoles | 8–7 |
| 4 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | 5–7 |
| 6 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 4–8 |
| 7 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
The Citadel | Bulldogs | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 20,907 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 49 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.577 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.32 ± 0.29: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 18% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | The Citadel | 3.98 | 5.50 | 1–6 | 0.3 | +1.51 | 1.0 | 23% |
| 1 | University of Miami | 8.55 | 9.23 | 12–3 | 10.5 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 3 | Florida State University | 7.37 | 7.87 | 8–7 | 6.6 | +0.51 | 0.5 | 29% |
| 5 | North Carolina State University | 7.12 | 7.12 | 5–7 | 5.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 6 | Eckerd College | 6.99 | 6.80 | 4–8 | 4.4 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 4 | Jacksonville University | 7.48 | 7.25 | 6–9 | 6.6 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 7 | University of South Florida | 6.81 | 6.11 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.70 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 2 | College of Charleston | 9.37 | 8.52 | 11–4 | 12.9 | −0.86 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Walters | The Citadel | 1.93 | 3.44 | 1–6 | 0.3 | +1.51 | 1.0 | 23% |
| Kenneth Buck | The Citadel | 1.30 | 2.81 | 1–6 | 0.3 | +1.51 | 1.0 | 23% |
| Henry Parker | The Citadel | 0.51 | 2.02 | 1–6 | 0.3 | +1.51 | 1.0 | 23% |
| Atlee Kohl | University of Miami | 3.06 | 3.74 | 12–3 | 10.5 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 27% |
| Aidan Dennis | University of Miami | 2.89 | 3.57 | 12–3 | 10.5 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 27% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | Florida State University | 2.81 | 3.32 | 8–7 | 6.6 | +0.51 | 0.5 | 29% |
| Adam Larson | North Carolina State University | 2.50 | 2.51 | 5–7 | 5.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Isabella Du Plessis | North Carolina State University | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5–7 | 5.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Richard Mccann | University of Miami | 2.57 | 2.41 | 6–2 | 6.2 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Matthew Monts | Eckerd College | 2.26 | 2.07 | 4–8 | 4.4 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Andreas Keswater | University of South Florida | 2.17 | 1.47 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.70 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Zachariah Schemel | University of South Florida | 2.52 | 1.82 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.70 | 0.4 | 88% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hurricanes | Cougars | Seminoles | Fins | Wolfpack | Tritons | Bulls | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 5–2 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W | L |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 5–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| Florida State University Seminoles | 4–3 | W | W | ✕ | L | L | L | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 4–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 4–3 | L | L | W | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 3–4 | L | L | W | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 1–6 | W | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hurricanes | Cougars | Seminoles | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 2–1 | ✕ | W | W | L |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Florida State University Seminoles | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–2 | W | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hurricanes | Cougars | Seminoles | Fins | Wolfpack | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Florida State University Seminoles | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Seminoles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Tritons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Fins | 2-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
