College of Charleston '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.30 (fleet 3.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 49–30 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 33–12 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 12–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (79 matches) the record is 49–30 against 48.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-07 | SAISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.68 | 1.83 | 11–4 | 12.9 | −0.86 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 2023-03-11 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.70 | 2.99 | 9–7 | 8.2 | +0.29 | 0.2 | 42% |
| 2023-03-04 | Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 2.64 | 13–1 | 13.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 2021-03-27 | Navy Spring Team Race | skipper | 2.65 | 3.29 | 4–6 | 3.0 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 2020-02-22 | Frank L. Mendleblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 2.88 | 12–12 | 11.3 | +0.16 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 93% | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.0 | 3.13 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Frank L. Mendleblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points #4 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.0 | 3.19 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jack Howard |  Tabor Academy |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
